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中国增持美国国债令民族主义者不解
中国政府继续稳步增持美国国债，这令中国那些更具民族主义色彩的媒体很不安。这些媒体一直对投资于他们认为面临汇率贬值和通胀危机的美国持批评态度。
美国财政部本周三公布的最新国际资本数字显示，中国在7月份购买净购买了152.6亿美元的美国国债，6月份的购买额为266.3亿美元。该数据并不令人市场感到意外。图表显示，虽然每月的数字波动很大，但中国购买美国国债的趋势近几个月来并没有很明显的变化。民族主义倾向明显的《环球时报》似乎不知道该如何处理这条消息。这篇报道的记者写道，美国财政部的国际资本数据让人雾里看花，而学者意见分歧很大。文章称中国国内的普遍看法是国内外投资者都可能会减持美国国债，同时带有怀疑口吻地指出，一些学者坚持，购买美国国债依然是中国的现实选择。
中国官员曾公开对美国的财政和货币政策可能损害他们所持美国资产的价值表示担忧。但这些讲话并不能真实反映他们在债券市场上的行为，看来主要是对诸如《环球时报》中表达的那种公众意见的反应。公众主要是对购买美国国债的价值持怀疑态度。
众说纷纭的公众意见背后的现实是，中国别无选择。因为尽管今年有所下降，但中国仍存在巨大的贸易顺差，它需要为每月的巨额外汇收入找到一个去处。美国的债券市场仍然是最好，也是唯一现实的选择。如果中国真的想要减少美国国债的购买额，就必须采取措施减少贸易顺差的规模。最显而易见的手段是，让人民币再度升值。大多数经济学家认为，在中国出口依旧低迷之际，这样做的可能性不大。
因此，中国的投资战略自2008年年中以来实际上并没有发生太多转变。当时中国的外汇储备管理当局似乎对联邦机构债券的安全性感到恐惧。由于收益率相对较高，中国一直在购买这类债券。自那时起，中国一直减持机构债券，而将大部分新资金投入到了美国国债之中。近几个月来，美国国债市场的主要变化不是来自中国。中国的购买额虽然仍很高，但在美国国债市场上的重要性却相对下降了，因为看重政府债券安全性的其它买家也在介入，比如美国家庭。这让美国政府能够大规模提高债券发售量，同时又不必支付更高的利息。
China Keeps Buying Treasurys /ˈtreʒəri/, Confusing NationalistsHoldings[ˈnæʃənəlist], but Total Foreign Demand /dɪˈmɑːnd/ Grows
China's government is continuing to steadily buy U.S.Treasury debt /det/.And that's pretty disconcerting /ˈdɪskənˈsɜːt/ for the more nationalist corners of the Chinese media, who are regular critics of investing in a nation they often say is poised /pɔɪzd/ for a currency collapse /kəˈlæps/ and inflationary /ɪnˈfleɪʃənri/ crisis.The latest Treasury International Capital figures released Wednesday show China buying a net $15.26 billion in Treasury debt in July, after buying $26.63 billion in June /dʒuːn/.The data was not surprising to the marketl.While the monthly figures can be volatile /ˈvɒlətaɪl/, the trend /trend/ in China's U.S.debt purchases [ˈpəːtʃəs] hasn't really changed much in recent months, as the chart below shows.The reliably [riˈlaiəbli] nationalist Global Times seemed unsure how to handle the news.The TIC figures 'confused many people, and academics [ˈækəˈdemik] were divided [diˈvaidid] on the government's actions,' the reporter aigned to cover the story wrote.The piece cites /saɪt/ the conventional /kənˈvenʃənl/ wisdom within China that 'both foreign and domestic investors are likely to cut their U.S.bond holdings' while noting skeptically [ˈskeptikəli] that 'some scholars [ˈskɔlə] insisted that purchasing U.S.bonds is a good option for China.'
Chinese officials have themselves publicly expreed worries about what U.S.fiscal /ˈfɪskl/ and monetary /ˈmʌnɪtri/ policies will do to the values of their holdings.But those statements have been a poor guide to its actual behavior in the bond /bɒnd/ market.Such comments seem to be mostly a response to public opinion, of the kind reflected in the Global Times, that is generally sceptical /ˈskeptɪkl/ of the value of buying U.S.debt.The reality /riˈæləti/ behind the noisy public debate /dɪˈbeɪt/ is that China has little choice.Because the nation still runs a large trade surplus /ˈsɜːpləs/ although a smaller one this year it has to find somewhere to put large amounts [əˈmaunt] of foreign currency every month.The U.S.debt market remains the best and only real option.If China really wanted to cut back on its purchases of U.S.debt, it would have to take steps to reduce the size /saɪz/ of its trade surplus: most obviously, letting its currency appreciate again.Most economists think that's unlikely to happen while China's exports remain depreed.So China's investment /ɪnˈvestmənt/ strategy /ˈstrætədʒi/ actually hasn't shifted much since mid-2008.That's when the managers of the nation's foreign exchange reserves seemed to have gotten spooked /spuːk/ about the safety of federal /ˈfedərəl/ agency debt, which they had been buying because of its higher yields/jiːld/.Since then China has consistently
[kənˈsistəntli] unloaded agency bonds and put most of its new money into Treasurys.The big change in the Treasury market in recent months hasn't come from China.China's purchases, while obviously large, have become relatively /ˈrelətɪvli/ le import in the Treasury
market as other buyers eager /ˈiːɡə(r)/ for the safety of government debt have stepped in.That's enabled /ɪˈneɪbld/ the U.S.government to maively [ˈmæsivli] ramp /ræmp/ up its debt sales without having to pay higher interest rates.Treasurys /ˈtreʒəri/
Demand /dɪˈmɑːnd/
debt /det/
disconcerting /ˈdɪskənˈsɜːt/
poised /pɔɪzd/
collapse /kəˈlæps/
inflationary /ɪnˈfleɪʃənri/
reliably [riˈlaiəbli]
academics [ˈækəˈdemik]
divided [diˈvaidid]
conventional /kənˈvenʃənl/
skeptically [ˈskeptikəli]
fiscal /ˈfɪskl/
monetary /ˈmʌnɪtri/
surplus /ˈsɜːpləs/
amounts [əˈmaunt]
strategy /ˈstrætədʒi/
federal /ˈfedərəl/
yields/jiːld/
relatively /ˈrelətɪvli/
eager /ˈiːɡə(r)/ enabled /ɪˈneɪbld/ maively [ˈmæsivli]
