北师大珠海分校 期末 行为金融学 第六到十章 答案由刀豆文库小编整理，希望给你工作、学习、生活带来方便，猜你可能喜欢“北京师范大学珠海分校”。
第六章 1.miscalibration : is the tendency for people to overestimate the precision of their knowledge.标准误差是人们高估自己知识精确度的一种趋势。
exceive optimism : people’s predictions about the future are unrealistically optimistic.过度乐观：人们对于将来的预测是不切实际的乐观。
better-than average effect: Better-than-average effect says that many of us feel we are smarter or more skilled than average.好过平均水平效应：我们大多数人都认为自己的智慧或技能比平均水平要好。
Illusion of control: people think that they have more control over events than objectively can be true.控制幻想：人们认为他们有比实际更大的支配事物的能力。
self-attribution bias: the tendency for people to attribute succees or good outcomes to their own abilities , while blaming failures on circumstances beyond their control , can lead to an increase in overconfidence.自我归因偏见：人们通常把成功或好的结果归功于自己的能力，而把失败归咎于自己控制之外的环境。
Confirmation bias: the tendency to search out evidence consistence with one’s prior beliefs and to ignore conflicting data.证实偏差：是指当人们确立了某一个信念或观点时，在收集信息和分析信息的过程中，他们有一种寻找支持这个信念的证据的倾向，也就是说他们会很容易接受支持这个信念的信息，而忽略否定这个信念的信息。甚至还会花费更多的时间和认知资源贬低与他们的看法相左的观点。pros of overconfidence:过度自信的优点：当目标确定，行动确定的时候，过度自信可能促进我们的效应。
cons of overconfidence: 过度自信的缺点：过度自信会导致过度交易，从而影响金融市场。
2.miscalibration is greater for hard questions , it is greater when we look at 50% confidence ranges.3.suppose you are about to bowl with your friends.In standard 10-pin bowling,300 is the maximum score，and 200 is and excellent one.You are feeling buoyant today and boldly predict 225 as your score, with a 90% confidence range of between 200 and 250.Over the year, you have averaged 175, with 90% of your results falling within 50 points of this magnitude(between125and225).On the basis of your season record, you are exceively optimistic（by 50 points）.Moreover, you are miscalibrated, with your confidence interval being only 50% as wide as it should be.4.过度自信有以下几个方面的表现：
1、标准误差。
2、过度乐观。
3、好过平均水平。
4、控制幻觉。这些表现说明了过度自信是随着时间演变而来的。确定性偏差是指人们有意或无意地寻找支持自己之前的看法的信息和解释,避免不同看法的信息和解释的倾向。所以，即使通过了学习，由于确定性偏差的存在，过度自信不会马上消失。5.球队之前16次常规赛平均分(38*4+34*3+48+49+52+24+56+31+27+20+28)/16 =36.1875,而大多数粉丝们认为他们在接下来的四次决赛的平均分会是50，所以粉丝们是过度乐观了。而他们的粉丝有95%的把握确定决赛时的分数会在45至55之间。这个自信区间太窄了。所以粉丝是过度自信了。
第七章 1.IQ and EQ: 智商，是人们认识客观事物并运用知识解决实际问题的能力。而情商是与智商相对应的概念。它主要是指人在情绪、情感、意志、耐受挫折等方面的品质。Mood and Emotion：
An emotion is about something, whereas a mood is a general feeling that does not focus on anything in particular.Mood 是本能的，而emotion是非本能的。Human brain and the brain of other animal: The cerebrum is what distinguishes the human brain from those of other vertebrate animals.The ability to plan for the future is critical to the advancement of the human species.Phineas Gage and Elliot:
2.yes , I agree.emotional intelligence reflect a person’s ability to identify and manage their own emotional responses, as well as those of others.Emotion allow us to make quick, appropriate, and rational responses to stimuli, including such divergent situations as a dangerous encounter or a financial decision.A person’s succe is dependent on his emotional intelligence, in addition to his intelligence quotient.So emotional intelligence may be just as important as investment knowledge.3.（Cognitive antecedents:）I will feel happine and surprise when I won a lottery with a $10 million prize because I know this is a rare event and I am so lucky.（Intentional object:）I am so happy and surprised because i won the prize.（Physiological arousal:）My body actually goes through hormonal changes when I experience an emotion.At the time that I won the prize, I might feel my blood preure rising.（Physiological expreions:）I might expre my happine and surprise at the news that I won the prize by screaming or jumping up.（Valence:）I am feeling very positive toward the prize.（Action tendencies:）In some case I might purchase more lottery, but due to the exist of my reason, I decide against buying more lottery because I know I won be so lucky all the time.4.基于phinea和elliot的经验和大量其他脑部受伤的病例以及对大脑大量的研究，damasio总结出情感对理智有着重大的影响。理智和情感是人类完整的一部分，大脑和身体是连通的，如果我们不认识身体和大脑之间的联系，我们就不能明白人类的行为。Damasio的研究表明情感与理性决策是互为补充的。
5.1、当决策至关重要时，情感推动个体做出决策。
2、情感有助于做出最优决策。第八章 1.Good company and good stock 好的公司在于管理的质量而好的股票在于长期投资的价值。Momentum-chaser and contrarian 现在有一个实验，有两只股票，一只是前5年的平均收益为5%，另一只是前五年的平均收益为15%，根据专家分析，这两只股票在未来五年每年可获利10%。那么，是Momentum-chaser的话就会把多于50%的比例投资与第一只股票，而contrarian就会把多于50%的比例投资与第二只股票。International diversification and domestic diversification 国际多元化能比国内多元化分散更多的风险。Anchoring and herding 锚定是指人们倾向于把对将来的估计与已采用的估计联系起来，同时易受他人建议的影响，而羊群效应是指投资者在投资信息环境不确定的情况下，易受其他投资者的影响，从而模仿他人决策。
2.0．15log(s)—质量好，是大公司。
B/M—市场价值高
MQ—管理好
而这些都是与长期投资价值有关的因素。
3.本土偏好的一个合理解释是信息优势。a.因为近，你可以知道得更多。b.从本土公司那获得的收益可能出现在改进的监督能力以及获得的私人信息上。
4.（1）是的。A.因为距离、文化和语言关系，人们会选择当地的投资，他们熟悉所有级别的品种的投资。B.如果在当地投资，他们有信息优势，他们了解当地的企业，甚至可以监督他们，从而提升公司业绩，甚至拿到未公开的信息，获取更多回报。C.这也是理性行为，是避险需求。
（2）是的。因为文化原因，不同的地区有不同的语言不同的文化，对企业来说，文化的认同是很重要的。
5.a.就单只股票而言，价钱的转变会收到其他股票价钱转变的锚定，市盈率也会受到其他公司市盈率的锚定。
b．股票的名称、代码的好坏会影响人们的投资决策，进而影响股票价格。
c．没有信息冲击的较为稳定的资本市场上，投资者锚定分红，他们认为分红就是就是与上期相同，将下一期的分红情况锚定在上期的水平上进行调整，并且反在分红固定时才能使市场达到稳定状态。
d．A股市场存在8多4少的现象，B股市场因为大部分是境外投资者而没有此现象。
第九章 1.indirect and direct tests of relationship between overconfidence and trading activity Sensation seeking and overconfidence Overconfidence is the tendency for people to overestimate their knowledge,abilities,and the precision of their information,or to be overly sanguine of the future and their ability to control it..Sensation seeking is a personality trait whose four dimensions are thrill and adventure seeking;experience seeking;disinhibition;and boredom susceptibility.Underdiversification and exceive trading Statics and dynamics of overconfidence
2.a.investorA:q=100-p=50
investorB: q=(150-p)/2=50
b.investorA:q=100-30=70
investorB: q=(150-30)/2=60
所以是investorA。
c.investorA。越自信曲线越平缓，对价格反映越大。
3.4.（1）3000人做了一个实验，在被试验者中大多数没有持有股票，在这3000人中超过600人持有股票，而他们的平均持股数只有1，并且只有5%的人持有10只或以上的股票，而大多数证据表明持有10只股以上甚至更多的不同的股票才能达到合理的分散化水平。因此大多数投资者都不够分散化。
（2）因为对金融不精通的人投资容易不分散化。另外，由于他们过分自信，也容易出现投资不分散化。他们对价格趋势很敏感，受本土偏见的影响。总之，他们是缺乏专业知识。
（3）在投资组合中买入10只以上不同品种的股票。
5.没有。他们总认为自己看好的股票就一定表现好。他们缺乏专业能力，并且过度自信，忽视新的公众信息。他们容易犯经验主义错误。
第十章
1.differentiate the following terms/concepts: a.Regret and disappointment 遗憾和失望
尽管相同的名义损失，遗憾致的成果更加激烈的厌恶和失望的选择开关比一个强烈的愿望。相比之下失望，遗憾更是一个负面情绪。前者是因未能称心如愿而惋惜。后者是丧失信心;希望没能实现,比前者更为强烈。遗憾有时是伴随着后悔的情景，某种行为可能在当初的拐折点改变结局，而却没那么做，因为自身的原因就更添加遗憾的成分。b.House money and break-even effects 赌场盈利效应和保本效应
前者：风险增加的存在寻求在事先获得
后者：面前的损失,结果之前提供机会甚至是特别吸引力 c.affect（noun）and affect(verb)影响 名词 和动词 都是影响的意思
名词表示受到某种事物的影响造成的结果
动词表示某种事物对另一事物的影响，是一个过程 d.Bad mood and depreion 不良情绪和抑郁
前者不良情绪只是暂时的，忧郁程度轻
后者抑郁时间持续长，程度严重，影响工作学习和生活
2.In housing markets, there is a positive correlation between prices and trading volume, when there is a housing boom, many houses sell at ,or even above, the prices asked by sellers.In times of bust, homes sits on the market for a long time with asking prices that exceed the prices that can reasonably be expected.How can this be explained?
一项研究在市场的形象和投资者的行为之间的关系。考虑特定行业的刺激引起的情绪是高度相关的概率，参与者会选择在该行业投资
3.some investment banks engage in proprietary trading,which means that the firm's traders actively trade financial securtities using the bank's money ,in order to generate a profit.To offset a slowdown in one division, traders in a profitable division might more actively engage in proprietary trading.Do you think this practice is wise? 不明智。对称性可能表明你损失后会变得更加风险规避。蛇位的作用（snake-bit effect）：“我已经失去了很多风险投资，所以现在我走向一个更冒险的组合”但是这有可能会导致有更大的损失的风险。
4.This morning I woke up in a sour mood because my favorite team lost its game yesterday.Then I had to wait an extra-long time in line for coffee.It started to rain , and I forgot my umbrella in the car.When I arrived at my office(finally), I found that a stock I held in my portfolio was falling in value , so I sold.Is this evidence that mood moves markets? 是的。情绪能影响市场，投资者的情绪转化为市场情绪，进而影响市场的结果。一场淘汰赛失败后，据报道，在失败国的股票市场，行情都有显著的下降。
5.What does research based on the game show Deal or No Deal tell us about pathdependence and integration versus segregation of gambles? 一掷千金的研究表明损失后会愿意冒更大的风险，和前景理论一致，远离了风险厌恶，想得到更多。
