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The East China Sea
中国东海
Regional turbulence 区域动荡
IT CAME out of a clear blue sky.On November 23rd China declared a huge swathe of the airspace above the East China Sea henceforth to be part of a new Chinese “Air Defence Identification Zone”, or ADIZ: all aircraft intending to enter the zone had to file flight plans with the Chinese authorities, maintain radio communications and follow whatever instructions Chinese controllers chose to iue.Otherwise, China warned ominously, they risked it taking “defensive emergency measures”.这张图片中天朗气清。2013年11月23日，中国宣布在东海设立防空识别区，覆盖大片东海上空领域，要求在区域内通过的飞机都得向中国通报飞行计划，必须开启并保持双向无线电通信联系，服从东海防空识别区管理机构或其授权单位的指令。对不配合识别或拒不服从指令的航空器，中国武装力量“将采取防御性紧急处置措施”。
Japan’s two main airlines, whose commercial flights traverse this newly designated area dozens of times a day, rushed to comply with the new rules.But then it was America’s turn to surprise, when the Pentagon let slip that two of its B-52 bombers had flown into the zone, over the Senkaku islands, on November 26th on what it claimed was part of regular exercises in the area.The planes had followed “normal procedures”, a spokesman said, which included “not filing flight plans, not radioing ahead and not registering our [radio] frequencies”.Suddenly, the prospect loomed of a stand-off between the world’s superpower and Asia’s emerging great power.日本两大航空公司的商业航班一天数十次穿过该区域，得知该消息后立即表示服从安排。然后吃惊的就是五角大楼了，它放出消息说十一月26日两架B-52轰炸机执行所谓的训练时飞过了该区域的钓鱼岛。一位发言人称，这两架飞机履行了正常的程序，包括没有通报飞行计划、没有保持无线通讯联系，没有注册频率。很快，人们就开始观望这个超级大国与亚洲的新兴力量之间会发生些什么？
China insists it is doing nothing unusual in establishing an air-defence zone.America, Canada and Japan, among others, have had them since the early days of the cold war, when countries were anxious to defend themselves in good time against Soviet warplanes and nuclear miiles.Yet the United States, for one, only insists that aircraft identify themselves if they intend to enter American airspace;planes simply paing through the zone(which extends well beyond territorial limits)do not have to.China, on the other hand, insists that all aircraft in the new ADIZ abide by its new rules.中国政府坚称建立防空识别区是合情合理的。美国、加拿大、日本以及很多其他国家早在冷战初期就建立了自己的防空识别区。当时，这些国家都在提防着苏联的战机和核弹。但美国却认为飞机进入美国领空时须自我识别；但只是途径这个区域是则不必如此（该区域要远大于领空面积）。而中国则要求所有飞机经过新设的防空识别区时都要遵守规定。
More provocatively, China’s ADIZ covers the uninhabited Senkaku islands, which China calls the Diaoyu.Japan has held these since the late 19th century, but since the 1970s they have been claimed by China.In September 2012 the Japanese government bought from their private owner three of the five islands it did not already own.China claimed the move was an anti-China conspiracy, and set out to undermine Japan’s control of the islands, first by using incursions of surveillance veels, and later patrol aircraft, to which Japan’s Self-Defence Forces have responded by scrambling fighter jets.Recently, an unmanned Chinese drone flew over the islands.When Japan threatened to shoot down the next drone that came its way, a Chinese general insisted that would be an act of war.更具有煽动性的是，中国的防空识别区覆盖了未住人的尖阁诸岛，中国将其称为钓鱼岛。此岛在19世纪末期为日本所控制，但中国于19世纪70年代将其收回。2012年9月份，日本政府以买下了该岛的五分之三（其余部分之前已经为政府所有）。中国政府声称这是针对中国的阴谋并开始破坏日本对这些岛屿的控制，先后用海监船和飞机进行巡逻。日本也以战斗机不断干扰作为回应。最近，一家中国的无人机飞过了钓鱼岛，当时日本威胁要击落下一架，中国的一名将军立马站出来说这将会挑起战争。
The latest move represents a significant ratcheting-up of China’s challenge to Japanese control of the Senkakus.The new zone increases the risk of military escalation, accidental or otherwise.In future China may think that the zone forms the basis to take action against Japanese aircraft operating in the zone.Not only does the ADIZ cover Japanese-held territory, it also overlaps significantly with Japan’s own air-defence zone(see map).Meanwhile, running uncomfortably close to both Taiwan(which also claims the Senkakus)and South Korea, it has alarmed those neighbours too.An adviser to Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, calls it a “whole new game” and the biggest challenge in memory to freedom of movement in or above the East China Sea.Japan lodged a strong protest, which was rebuffed.Australia, South Korea and Taiwan have also expreed concerns.Chuck Hagel, America’s defence secretary, said China’s move was a “destabilising attempt to alter the status quo in the region”.最近的措施代表着中国对于尖阁诸岛控制的不可逆的挑战。识别区增加了意外或者其它类型军事冲突的风险。将来，中国会以识别区为依据对该区域活动的日本飞机采取行动。识别区不仅包括日本控制的领土，也与日本自己的防空识别区大量重叠。同时，该区域也非常靠近台湾（也声称拥有钓鱼岛）和韩国，并且双方都对该区域保持警戒。日本首相安倍晋三的一位顾问将其称为“一场新游戏”，认为这是对东海之上和下迁徙自由的最大侵犯。日本提出严正抗议，但被拒绝。澳大利亚，韩国和台湾对此表示担心。美防长查克•黑格尔称中国的行动会使该地区现状出现动荡。
The decision to respond with an overflight of the B-52s, an official in Tokyo insists, was a joint understanding with Japan.China, meanwhile, says that it monitored the(unarmed)bombers, but claimed that they flew only along the “eastern edge” of its zone.The claim may be a way of saving face at home.Yet nothing suggests China is having second thoughts about its new ADIZ.Shi Yinhong of Renmin University in Beijing says it marks China’s first action since the Communist Party came to power in 1949 that “substantially expands its strategic space” on the western rim of the Pacific.Countries in South-East Asia with whom China has maritime disputes, notably the Philippines and Vietnam, wonder whether China will now impose an ADIZ over the South China Sea in a bid to turn it into a Chinese lake too.东京的一位官员坚称用B-52轰炸机飞越领空是美国与日本的共识。同时，中国说监视到了这些轰炸机（非武装）但它们只是沿着识别区东部边缘飞过。这项声明也许是个在国内挽回面子的方式。但没有事实可以证明中国改变主意。北京人民大学时殷弘认为这标志着自中国共产党执政以来第一次采取行动扩张太平洋西部边沿的战略空间。与中国有海事争端的东南亚国家，尤其是菲律宾和越南，都在猜测中国是否会会在南海设立另一个识别区来将其变成一个湖。
For now, China’s move throws into question the depth of President Xi Jinping’s desire for a “new type of great power relationship” with America.Barack Obama seemed to get on well with Mr Xi when they met for a two-day personal summit in June, but he cannot have envisaged having to dispatch two bombers as a warning six months later.Some better sense of how the two countries intend to handle matters will come with a visit to China in early December by the vice-president, Joe Biden.现在，中国的一系列动作让人难以揣测使得习近平对于与美国的新型关系期望程度。巴拉克•奥巴马与习近平在6月份为期两天的私人会晤似乎相处得颇为融洽，但他也没料到6个月后会派遣两架轰炸机作为警告。副总统拜登将于12月初访华，那时会更好看出两国如何处理事宜。
Mr Shi acknowledges that the zone has raised tensions, but predicts that Washington and Tokyo will badly want to avoid “too much risk of conflict”—ie, America and Japan will back off and accept the new situation.But that seems wishful thinking—as does a growing view among Chinese policymakers that fear of conflict with China will push America to weaken its long-held commitment to underwrite Japan’s security.In this view, America will push Japan into an accommodation with China, first, by acknowledging the existence of a territorial dispute.习主席承认识别区加剧了该地区的紧张局势，但预计华府和日本将会竭力避免更多冲突——比如说：美国和日本会妥协并接受现状。但这似乎只是一厢情愿——因为中国政府的政策制定者们持这样一种观念：为避免与中国直接冲突，美国不会兑现保卫日本安全的承诺。恰恰相反，美国会要求日本让步。其第一步就是承认领土争端的存在。
Yet on the contrary, a more aertive America and Japan is now more likely.Bonnie Glaser of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think-tank, notes that flights such as the one taken by the B-52s this week are only the latest act in a long history of America’s proving the freedom of navigation in international skies and waters.(And it seems to have reaured the Japanese commercial airlines, which after lobbying by their government, announced that they would not be following Chinese rules in future.)In Tokyo, defence guidelines, to be released at the end of the year, appear likely to articulate a new policy of patrolling the seas and skies around the Senkaku islands around the clock, rather than intermittently, as now.The stakes have just got a whole lot higher.但事实并非如此。美国和日本的态度很可能是强硬的。华盛顿智库国际政策研究中心的邦妮•格拉泽认为美国以前就采取措施证明过在国际领空和水域的航行自由，B-52轰炸机的航行只是一种新手段而已。（这似乎给日本航空公司们打了针强心剂，政府说服他们宣布未来将不会遵守中国的规定）年末，围绕尖阁诸岛海域和空域的巡逻将成为日本出台的国防条款中的一条新政策。
