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China needs caution in expanding economic presence in Europe
There has been much discuion recently about whether China should continue to buy European government debt.Many people believe that since Europe is experiencing sluggish economic growth, China should shoulder its global responsibility and take advantage of financial support to expand its economic presence in Europe, thereby paving the way for its rise.One question that immediately arises is whether the time has come for China to greatly increase investments in Europe.最近有很多讨论是关于中国是否应该继续购买欧洲政府债券。许多人认为自从欧洲经历了缓慢经济增长以来,中国应该承担起其国际责任并充分利用经济支持来扩大其在欧洲的经济存在,由此为中国之崛起而铺平道路。有个问题是现在是否是中国大量增加在欧洲的投资的时间已经来到。
The real question is not whether China should buy more Italian government bonds or expand its economic presence in Europe, but how it can grasp the actual situation in Europe.The European debt crisis is in eence a continuation of the 2008 global financial crisis, which was in fact a credit crisis.History has proven that it is simply impoible to rebuild a sound credit system in two to three years.真正的问题不是中国是否应该购买更多的意大利政府债券或者扩大其在欧洲的经济存在,而是应该清楚欧洲这个情形下得真正情况。欧洲的债务危机事实上是2008年全球经济危机的延伸,这实质上是信贷危机。历史已经证明在短短两三年内重建一个健全的信贷系统是不那么可能的。
Europe will overcome debt crisis, but will still face many challenges 欧洲将会度过债务危机,但是这将会面临着重重挑战和困难。
Given past experience, Europe will manage to survive and recover from the debt crisis because of the capability of the European civilization and the core competitivene of the European people.Two key questions are: What price Europe will pay for the crisis? When it will overcome the crisis? China should adjust its Europe strategy based on the analysis of the two questions.基于过去的经验,欧洲将会成功地从债务危机生存并逐渐恢复,因为欧洲核心的文明和具有强大竞争力的欧洲人民。两个关键的问题是:欧洲将会为此付出多少代价?什么时候欧洲将会度过这次危机?中国应该建立在分析这两个问题来挑战在欧洲的战略。
From the current situation, it could be seen that Europe poibly will not be able to pull itself out of the crisis in a short period.By analyzing various indexes of Europe's economic operation, it could be predicted that the European debt crisis may last for a very long period.and the debt crisis may turn into severe financial crises in some countries.从现在的情况来看,可以看到欧洲可能没有足够能力将自己在短时间内脱离这场危机。通过分析各种欧洲经济营运的指标,可以预示欧洲债务危机也许会持续一段很长时间,而且债务危机很可能在一些国家转变成金融危机。
First of all, the alleviation(减轻、缓解)of the debt crisis fundamentally depends on the tax revenue growth and economic growth.However, affected by the debt crisis and turbulence in the financial market, Europe's economic growth has shown signs of slowing down.Europe's domestic demand is weak, the external(外部的)environment is difficult, and signs indicating a worse prospect of Europe's economy have also appeared.首先,要缓解债务危机的根本要建立在税收的增长和经济的增长。然而,由于受债务危机和金融市场的不稳定得影响,欧洲经济增长已经表现出了减缓的迹象。欧洲的本土需求疲软,外部经济环境也很困难,并且有迹象表明欧洲经济的前景并不明朗。
Second, even if the economy of Europe shows signs of recovery, it will not be a short-term job for Europe to recover its financial credit system, known as the economic engine.The current financial crisis originated from the United States, and the skills needed to repair the financial system have not been mastered by Europeans.Even if Europe and the Untied States could join forces to start up the financial repair project, their efforts will be limited, and they will not be able to solve the iue thoroughly.第二,尽管欧洲经济指标显示有所恢复,但欧洲并不能在短期内恢复期金融信贷系统,众所周知这是经济引擎。当前的金融危机一开始是由美国引起的,而修复金融系统的技术还没被欧洲所掌握。尽管欧洲和美国可以一同合作开展金融复苏计划,但这些成功将会是有限的,而且它们也无法能够彻底地解决问题。
In addition, from a viewpoint of geopolitics, it could be seen that the persistent turbulence in the Middle East and North Africa probably will block the “window of opportunity,” preventing Europeans from reaching the Asia-Pacific Region, which has the most dynamic economic vigor.总而言之,从地缘政治的观点说来,可以看到目前在中东和北非的*很可能会使这一机会之窗关闭,阻止了欧洲人到达亚洲最活跃的经济重心。
China has to be cautious while expanding in Europe 中国不得不谨慎在欧洲的扩张
Emotionally, China is willing to give a hand to the European countries in difficulties.However, practically, China has to comprehensively consider many factors including the investment return, security, risk and national interests and therefore has be cautious while expanding in Europe.从感情上来说,中国将会向陷入困境的欧洲国家伸出援手。然而,事实上,中国已经全面地考虑许多方法包括投资回报、安全、风险和国家利益,因此也在欧洲扩张时谨慎起来。
China certainly can buy some European government bonds, but needs to follow the principle of equality and mutual benefit while investing in government bonds.China will be more willing to buy European government bonds if they offer a higher yield(高产额)than other investment products of the same kind.中国当然可以购买欧洲政府债券,但必须在坚持平等和互利的原则上进行政府债券投资。如果欧洲可以提供比其他同类投资产品更高的回报,那么中国将会更有意愿去购买欧洲政府债券。
At present, investment opportunities and the room for development are more important to China than the returns on inflation-proof government bonds.If European countries can reduce trade barriers, improve their investment environment, relax economic controls and adopt other measures to attract Chinese private and governmental investments, China will certainly buy more European government bonds and consider expanding and deepening strategic cooperation with European economies.目前,投资机会和发展的空间对中国来说比返回通胀的回报更重要。如果欧洲国家可以减少贸易壁垒,增加他们的投资环境,减少经济控制和通过其他方法来吸引中国私人和政府进行投资,中国将会更愿意够没欧洲整个债券和考虑扩展和加强与欧洲经济的战略合作。
In a word, as long as China and Europe are working together based on the principle of mutual benefit, they can negotiate and cooperate with each other on anything because that not only accords with the common interests of China and Europe but also is an objective requirement of globalization。
总之,只要中国和欧洲建立在互利原则上进行合作,他们不仅可以合作在任何方面,因为这不仅是欧洲和中国的共同利益,也是国际化的客观要求。