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An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for China’s
National Security
May 26, 2016
When most people think of the climate change, they will think aboutthat it is justthe rising of the temperature, and it is just a tiny change of climate, uncertain continuous change, which even one day in the future will be smoothed.Under normal conditions, whateverweather conditions we are facedwith,we are able to adapt to it.The magnitude of the climate change will not go beyond social adaptation degree.Our mitigation measures, such as the Kyoto protocol, were enough to reduce the impact of climate change.The IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)report pointed out that the gradual threat of climate change and its impact on food supplies and other important resources will not be serious enough to threaten to safety.Optimists claim that the benefits of technological innovation can counteract the negative effects of climate change.Focus No.1: what will Chinaface with?
In the 21st century, global warming will be very serious.The latest research results show that when the temperature rises to a certain threshold, abnormal climate phenomenon will occur rapidly.It brings not only the climate problem itself, also a series of social problems.At the same time, it will seriously affect the region's stability and geopolitical environment, and thus it will be a threat to national security.China is also involved in it.From 2010 to 2020, the temperature of the Nordic will decline more than 6 degrees, the mean annual precipitation will fall by 30%, and the wind capacity and wind speed will rise by 15%.But by contrast, the weather conditions of the north Asia inland areas are much worse.Especially in the south of China, a great drought began from 2010, until 2020.For densely populated agricultural regions, the drought seems to be more damaging than the temperature drops: due to the declining rainfall, lakes dry up, and thus the supply of fresh water will become a big problem.From 2010 to 2020, China urgently needs a lot of food to feed its huge population.The reliability of the monsoon rainfall reduced, which will have a major impact in China.Summer wind can bring China's precipitation, but can also cause negative effects.For example, the flood can make the soil erosion more serious.The evaporative cooling water is reduced, which can extend the cold winter, and increase the summer high temperature.Because of the reduced precipitation, the tense supply of water and energy inagriculture will become more serious.Because of the cold and hunger, China may covet Ruian and west neighbor’s energy.Widespread hunger will cause confusion and international disputes.At the same time, in Bangladesh, due to the typhoon and the rise of sea levels, shoreline will be eroded, fresh water resources will be polluted, and living environment will bedeteriorated.So a large number of population migrations are inevitable, and China will face a huge preure to immigration.Weather change and sea temperaturesrise affected the agriculture, fisheries and wildlife, and water and energy.The crop production will be affected greatly.As one of the key food suppliers(The United States, Australia, Argentina, Ruia, China and India)in the world, China will face serious problem of provision shortage.China, on the other hand, the lack of water resources and energy is disastrous.Focus No.2:The weather upheavals bring about national security iues
The preure caused by weather changes can lead to violence and division.Itcan cause a huge threat to national security.Today, the earth's carrying capacity has been challenged in the world.The earth's carrying capacity refers to the ability of the earth itself, as well as her ecosystem(including social, economic and cultural system)supporting of countle human survival ability on this planet.While the weather upheavals make the capacitywhich has been already on the verge of bearing limit be damaged more.So in order to compete for food, water and energy, aggreive wars break out more easily.Being faced with the sharp fall of the earth’s carrying capacity, a country’smost likely response is to attack or defense.Because of famine, disease and natural disasterscaused by weather changes, many countries’ demand will greatly exceed the scope of the carrying capacity of the earth, which will cause thedesperation in a state and make it become aggreive.Imagining that in these three nuclear states, Pakistan, India and China due to the refugee problem, the use of public rivers and arable land problem, and what the result is if skirmishes happen in the border.Due to climate change China will be involved in international conflict:
1.Because of the population migration iues, there will be some skirmishes or even wars between Bangladesh, India and China.2.Because of oil pipeline in Kazakhstan insurgents and criminal damage,China may interfere in the internal affairs of Kazakhstan.3.The continuing conflict betweenLaos, Vietnam, Myanmar, India and China will break out.Conclusion：
Probably within 10 years, the evidence of the upcoming climate change will become more clear and credible.Our model may enable us to better predict the consequences.In this case, China needs to take urgent measures to prevent and reduce some significant effect.China should take diplomatic action to minimize the poibility of conflict.In this case, however, the large-scale population migration is inevitable.Learn how to manage the population.The border tension and refugees are crucial.At the same time, we need specificsecurity protocols to deal with energy, food and water problems.In short, division and conflict will become a universal phenomenon in human life.
