赏析版3月经济学人文章_赏析版经济学人文章

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赏析版2012年3月经济学人文章（英汉双语对照）汇集

Contents [2012.03.31]A muffled big bang 哑了火的大爆炸 1 [2012.03.31]Vietnam: Hero to zero 越南从英雄到狗熊 4 [2012.03.31]Falklands war: Short, victorious war 福克兰战爭30周年祭 6 [2012.03.30]Hong Kong tycoons under arrest 被拘捕的香港富商 10 [2012.03.24]South China Sea: Full unclosure?南中国海地位未定？ 13 [2012.03.24]Revolution in retreat 古巴革命正在退却 [2012.03.24]Adagio, OPERA 悠着点，OPERA 19 [2012.03.17]Flavoursome research “味儿足”的研究 25 [2012.03.17]A Singapore cemetery: Brown study 一座新加坡坟场 27 [2012.03.10]Bandwagons and busts 从众和灾难29 [2012.03.10]The death of trust 信任的消亡37 [2012.03.10]Natural stock selection 自然选择股票 46 [2012.03.10]Poaching：Black ivory 偷猎: 黑色象牙 47 [2012.03.10]Creation story 创造的故事 49 [2012.03.07]WHICH IS THE BEST LANGUAGE TO LEARN? 之六－拉丁语 52 [2012.03.06]Auschwitz complex 奥斯威辛情结 54 [2012.03.05]A reliable source on the ground现场有一个可靠线人 57 [2012.03.05]WHICH IS THE BEST LANGUAGE TO LEARN? 之五 58 [2012.03.03]Taking the long view 高瞻远瞩 60 [2012.03.03]How to rig an election 如何在选举中作弊 66 [2012.03.02]Can the scientists keep up? 科学家跟得上吗？ 68

[2012.03.31]A muffled big bang 哑了火的大爆炸 America’s capital markets 美国资本市场

A muffled big bang 哑了火的大爆炸

The JOBS Act and the BATS crash 《JOBS法案》和BATS的重创

Mar 31st 2012 | NEW YORK | from the print edition

THE capital market that is commonly thought to be the most developed in the world is, if you are being kind, in flux or, if you are not, in a me.A stock-exchange blow-up has raised fresh questions about the reliability of America’s equities markets.More significantly, laws that govern how firms can raise money are on the verge of a profound revision.说得好听点，人们公认的全球最发达的资本市场如今处于变动期；说得不好听，那就是一团糟。BATS证券交易所遭受重创，这令人再次质疑美国股市是否可靠。更重要的是，监管公司集资的法律即将进行一次全面修订。[2012.03.17]Afghanistan: The lowered bar still looks high 难以逾越的障碍 First, the exchange snafu.A few years ago the temporary collapse of a trading venue in Lenexa, Kansas would not have been much noticed.Back then the Better Alternative Trading System(BATS)exchange was just a set of computer algorithms in the head of a man named Dave Cummings, who first computerised his own wheat-trading busine and then expanded to accommodate equities.首先，BATS交易所状况混乱。若是数年前堪萨斯州的雷内萨斯有股票交易所一时受挫，那是不会引起什么关注的。那时，更佳替代交易系统（BATS）交易所不过是一个叫戴夫?卡明斯（Dave Cummings）的人想出来的一套计算机算法。一开始，他只是通过电脑来打理自己的小麦生意，后来才将这些算法应用至股市。

Now BATS is a big provider of market liquidity.On March 23rd a coding error at the exchange disrupted trading in firms whose ticker symbols ran from A to BFZZZ.That, unfortunately, was enough to capture both the world’s most valuable listed company—Apple’s stock slumped by 9% before circuit-breaker rules caused trading to be suspended—and, more embarraingly, the shares of BATS itself on their very first day of trading.如今，BTAS让市场上的资产有了很强的折现能力。3月23日，BATS交易所出现了一个编码错误，导致股票代码为A至BFZZZ的公司的交易陷入混乱状态。很不幸，这个代码段包括了苹果公司和BATS的股票代码，在熔断机制中止所有交易前，全球市值最高的上市公司苹果公司的股价下跌9%；而更尴尬的是，BATS自身的股价在首个交易日就下跌。

Strikingly, the appeal of BATS as a venue for trading appears undamaged.By March 27th the exchange’s market share had recovered to 11%, two-thirds of that commanded by the far-better-known NASDAQ, and, when measured separately, close to that of the venerable New York Stock Exchange and its Archipelago affiliate.The glitch could have a more lasting effect on BATS’s plans to become a place where firms can list shares.The exchange operator quickly decided to pull its own offering, and its credibility as a venue for initial public offerings(IPOs)is hurt.But memories in this busine are short and a more salient iue is the attractivene of any exchange as a venue for raising capital.而引人注目的是，作为证券交易所BATS的吸引力似乎丝毫未减。到3月27日，交易所的市场分额已恢复至11%，是远比它知名的纳斯达克的三分之二；这个数值与历史悠久的纽约股票交易所及其Archipelago分所的份额（两者分开计算）很接近。这一个小失误可能会对BATS成为企业上市的交易所的计划产生更持久的影响。该交易所的运营者迅速地作出了撤消BTAS上市的决定，而人们则更加质疑BATS是否能成为企业首次上市的交易所。不过，这个行业是很健忘的，而更为突出的一个问题是：一般的证券交易所在筹资方面的吸引力。

Smaller firms in particular list le than they did.According to Jay Ritter of the University of Florida, an average of 165 companies with le than $50m in inflation-adjusted annual sales went public in America each year between 1980 and 2000.In 2001-2011 the average fell by more than 80%(see chart).尤其是，如今上市的规模较小的企业比过去少了。佛罗里达州大学的杰?里特（Jay Ritter）表示，1980年至2000年间美国平均每年有165家年度业绩低于五千万美元（已考虑通胀因素）的公司上市。而2001年至2011年此项数据下跌超过80%（见图表）。

That has got the lawmakers moving.On March 27th Congre sent a bill titled the JOBS Act to President Barack Obama for signing.In 22 pages—the equivalent of a blog post for a legislative branch with a propensity to expand any idea to Proustian lengths—the JOBS act creates routes for firms to circumvent or modify rules introduced as far back as the 1930s.The idea is to enable companies to raise money in a number of new ways while reducing compliance costs.这种状况使立法者有所行动。3月27日，国会将《JOBS法案》递交给巴拉克?奥巴马总统签署。长达22页（对一个喜欢像用《Proust》的篇幅来详述所有概念的立法部门而言，这个法案简直和一篇博文一样精简）的《JOBS法案》为企业提供了途径来规避或修改早在二十世纪三十年代就施行的条例。《JOBS法案》旨在让企业能在减少合规成本的同时通过多种新途径筹资。

Congre seems to have been moved in part by the appealing title—at a time of high unemployment, no one wants to vote against an act with “jobs” in the title, even if it is actually short for “Jumpstart Our Busine Start-ups Act”.But there is also a growing realisation that piling on regulations—from the Sarbanes-Oxley act after Enron to the more recent monstrosity that is the Dodd-Frank act—does nothing to revive the economy’s animal spirits.国会似乎多少被法案那吸引人的名字所打动了——在一个失业率高企的时期，不会有人想给名字中有“就业”字眼的法案投反对票，即便那实际上只是《全力加快新兴企业发展法案》的缩写。但越来越多人意识到不断制定法规——从安然公司丑闻后的《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》到更近些时候的那份怪异的《多德弗兰克法案》——并无法振兴经济。

Predictably, many of the people responsible for those earlier rules, notably Eliot Spitzer, a former New York attorney-general(and disgraced governor), have expreed outrage.Mary Schapiro, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commiion, the agency responsible for securities regulation, wrote a letter full of objections.Mr Obama is ambivalent, but more likely to sign the bill than not, if only because a dynamic market for new firms would provide a whiff of hope and change.不出所料，这些旧法案的许多制订者也表达了他们的愤怒之情，尤其是前纽约司法部长（同时也是声名狼藉的州长）艾略特?斯皮策（Eliot Spitzer）。证券交易委员会（负责监管证券交易的机构）主席玛丽?夏皮罗（Mary Schapiro）写了一封通篇是反对意见的信。奥巴马总统也很矛盾，但他很可能会签署这个法案，皆因一个有利于新兴企业的生机勃勃的市场能够带来一丝希望和改变。

The act will certainly make markets more friendly to firms.The most publicised components of the bill allow them to “crowdsource” slivers of equity from retail investors online;reduce regulatory requirements for companies with under $1 billion in revenues;and enable firms to stay private even as the number of owners expands to 2,000(the prior limit was 500).无疑，这个法案会让市场变得对企业更为有利。法案中的一些条例允许企业在网上“众包筹集”散户的资金；放宽对收益少于10亿美元的公司的监管规定；并让企业在股份持有者少于2000人时仍可不上市（之前的上限是500人）。这部分条例是最广为人知的。

Title IV, the chapter devoted to “small company capital formation” adjusts Regulation A, a component of securities law that dates back to its earliest days, to allow firms to remain nominally private, meaning they face only minimal disclosure standards, and still raise up to $50m annually in shares that are transferable.Restrictions on circulating information on securities iuance will be loosened, as will the freedom of investment-bank analysts to provide reports on(and implicitly tout on behalf of)clients.That will mean more dubious research, but could also create more interest in the stocks of smaller firms and a profitable mechanism to take them public.法案中专门讲述“小型企业集资方式”的第四章对条例A（很早期的证券法的一部分）作出了修改，让公司名义上不上市，这意味着它们只需遵循最低信息披露标准，而且每年仍然可以用可转让的股份筹资五千万美元。证券发行信息的流通限制会有所放松，投行分析师也能更自由地选择是否提供客户信息，这样他们可以代表客户间接招揽投资业务。这将意味着市场调查的准确性将会下降，但也能让小型企业的股票收益更高，并建立一个对它们上市更有利的机制。

Collectively, all these rules will create a looser environment for raising equity.The law’s precise impact will be felt in two phases, says Reena Aggarwal of the McDonough School of Busine at Georgetown University.There will be an initial spike in fundraising activity;and there will be a longer-term effect, determined by whether the grey areas created under the law encourage viable enterprises to grow(in which case the exemptions will expand)or produce a result like London’s AIM market for smaller companies.Its looser listing standards prompted an initial flurry of interest but have since delivered poor returns for investors unable to distinguish between hype and substance.总体而言，所有的这些条例都会创造一个更为宽松的筹资环境。乔治城大学麦克唐纳商学院的丽娜?阿加沃尔（Reena Aggarwal）说，在两个阶段内就会看到这些条例的确切效果。一开始，将掀起一轮筹资热潮；而且将会有更为长久的效果，但这要看法例产生的灰色地带到底是会促进企业发展（这样一来将会进一步放宽监管条例）还是会让情况变成像伦敦小型公司的另类投资市场（AIM）那样。AIM放宽了企业上市的标准，这在一开始使股票行情有短暂波动，但自此也让那些不能够分辨大肆吹嘘的宣传与实质的投资者收益惨淡。

http://ecocn.org/thread-66036-1-1.html 译者：contrary

[2012.03.31]Vietnam: Hero to zero 越南从英雄到狗熊 Vietnam 越南

Hero to zero 从英雄到狗熊

The Communist Party sticks to its principles and the economy stalls 共产党坚持自己的原则，但经济则停滞不前 Mar 31st 2012 | HANOI | from the print edition

AMID the bustling trade and raucous traffic of the Vietnamese capital, innumerable banners exhort citizens to “Celebrate the Spring, Celebrate the Party.” These days, Hanoians do not have much to celebrate.Not long ago, Vietnam was one of the developing world’s pin-ups.Now it is lagging badly.在越南首都熙熙攘攘的贸易与刺耳的交通噪声中，数不清的标语横幅提醒市民要“赞美春天，赞美党”。如今的河内人没多少可赞美的。不久前越南还是发展中国家的佼佼者之一，现在它却大大落后了。

The most immediate concern is inflation, which last year rose to above 20% for the second time in three years(see chart).Vietnam now has Asia’s highest inflation rate, a fact that government censors have asked local journalists to stop reporting.Thousands of businees have gone bankrupt, property prices have collapsed and banks and state-owned enterprises(SOEs)are riddled with bad debts.人们最直接的担心是通胀；去年的物价上涨在三年中第二次超过20%（见图表）。现在越南的通胀率位居亚洲之首，政府审查机构已责令本国记者不再报道这一事实。数以千计的企业破产，楼价崩盘，银行与国有企业（SOE）呆账缠身。

The reversal has been sudden.Vietnam’s GDP increased by more than 8% a year from 2003 to 2007, when the country attracted a surge of foreign investment.Now the World Bank is predicting that growth will average 6% a year in the five-year period up to the end of 2012.McKinsey, a consultancy, argues that unle Vietnam boosts its labour productivity by more than half, growth is likely to dwindle to below 5%.That will be well short of the government’s target of 7-8%.As McKinsey argues, “the difference sounds small, but it isn’t.” By 2020, Vietnam’s economy could be almost a third smaller than it would have been had economy continued to grow at 7% a year.逆转来得很突然。从2003到2007年，越南的GDP以每年大于8%的速度增长，外国投资大量涌入该国。现据世界银行预计，在截至2012年底的5年中，经济发平均年增长率只有6%。咨询公司麦肯锡（McKinsey）认为，如果越南不能将劳动生产率提高一半以上，则经济增长很可能会萎缩到5%以下。这将远低于政府7-8%的目标。正如麦肯锡所说的，“这一差别听上去不大，但事实并非如此。”到2020年，越南的经济可能会比它以每年7%的速度增长所能达到的水平低三分之一。

Everyone, even communist leaders, agrees on the main reasons for the slowdown.The poorly run, corrupt and wasteful SOEs, which account for about 40% of output, weigh the economy down.The formula of low-wage, low-cost manufacturing no longer works as it once did.Countries such as Cambodia and Bangladesh now undercut Vietnam in cheap manufactures.Yet the country has failed to move up the value-chain into more productive activities and higher-tech goods.所有的人，甚至共产党领袖们，都对经济放缓的主要原因看法一致。产品大约占总额40%的国有企业经营不善、贪腐普遍、浪费严重，因此拖累了经济。低工资、低成本的制造业模式不再像过去那样有效。柬埔寨和孟加拉国一类国家现在正以低价与越南竞争廉价制造业市场。而国家的价值链又未能攀升以进行更富成效的生产活动，生产更有科技含量的产品。

Frustratingly, however, realising this and doing something about it seem to be two different things in the minds of Vietnam’s communist rulers.A few optimists were hoping for changes at a three-day meeting of senior party cadres last month.Alas, there was a lot of breast-beating and little else.Nguyen Phu Trong, the general secretary of the Communist Party, urged the party to reform if it wanted to avoid an existential threat.But although his speech was made public, the rest of the meeting—in time-honoured fashion—took place behind closed doors.但令人压抑的是，在越南共产党统治者的心中，认识到这一点和对此采取措施似乎是两码事。有少数乐观主义者寄希望于上月举行的共产党高干会议，盼望这次为期三天的会议能带来改变。唉，与会者只会大发豪言壮语，除此实在没多少东西。共产党总书记阮富仲（Nguyen Phu Trong）告诫全党：想要避免生存危机，就必须进行改革。但尽管官方公开发表了他的讲话，但会议的其他部分则延续了闭门举行的悠久传统。

Calls by the party to reform or die are not new.“They’ve been saying that for 20 years,” says Carl Thayer, an expert on Vietnamese politics at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra.What is miing, now as in the past, is any detailed plan about how to implement reforms such as restructuring the clunky state-owned sector, streamlining public investment and improving transparency.Nine executives from Vinashin, a debt-ridden state-owned shipbuilder, went on trial on March 27th charged with mismanaging state resources.It is the biggest case of its kind for several years, but the politicians who encouraged and financed the company’s grandiose expansion, including the prime minister, are not likely to be held to account.共产党不是第一次提出不改革就会灭亡的呼吁。“这话他们说了20年了，”设在堪培拉的澳大利亚国防科学研究所（Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra）的越南政治专家卡尔?萨耶尔（Carl Thayer）说。但无论过去或现在都缺少实施改革的详细计划——例如怎样重组笨拙的国有企业、精简政府投资和提高透明度。3月27日，负债累累的国营造船厂越南船舶工业公司（Vinashin）的9名高管因被控对国家资源处置不当而出庭受审。这是几年来这一类案子中最大的一宗，但鼓励这家公司的浮夸扩展并为之提供资金的政治家包括该国总理似乎却不会为此负责。

Even if there were a change of mind at the top, it would still be difficult for leaders to implement change throughout the system.Power in Vietnam is more dispersed than in neighbouring China, and vested interests in busine and politics are bigger obstacles to change.Moreover, whereas China’s Communist Party has had some succe in reinventing itself as an Ivy League-style networking club for the elite, its comrades in Vietnam appear stuck in the past.The legitimacy won by military victories more than a generation ago is fading into distant memory, and Vietnamese leaders’ claim to economic competence is increasingly difficult to sustain.即使高层改变了方针，领袖们要在整个体系中实施改革还是十分困难的。越南的权力分散状况要比邻近的中国更为严重，而商界与政界的既得利益群体对改革障碍更大。此外，中国共产党在让自己改造为常青藤联盟式的全国精英人士网络方面已经取得了一定成绩，但它的越南同志们似乎还在坚持旧日的方针。几十年前武装斗争的胜利赢来的正统地位已在遥远的记忆中逐渐淡漠，而越南领袖自诩善理经济的夸耀越来越站不住脚了。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65982-1-1.html 译者：悠悠万事97

[2012.03.31]Falklands war: Short, victorious war 福克兰战爭30周年祭 Thirty years after the Falklands war 福克兰群岛之战30周年祭

Short, victorious war 短暂的战争，胜利的战争

On April 2nd 1982 Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands.The war Britain fought to recover them still colours domestic politics 1982年4月2日，阿根廷军队入侵福克兰群岛 [注1]。英国收复该群岛的战争至今仍影响着国内政治

Mar 31st 2012 | from the print edition

WHEN Adrian Mole, a fictional teenage diarist of the early 1980s, tells his father that the Falkland Islands have been invaded, Mr Mole shoots out of bed.He “thought the Falklands lay off the coast of Scotland”.That Britain still had sovereignty over a clutch of islands in the South Atlantic did, indeed, seem odd.Sending a naval task force 8,000 miles to fight for a thinly inhabited imperial relic seemed odder still.In some ways the conflict has come to seem even stranger since 1982.Yet for all its eccentricity, the Falklands campaign still shapes the politics of Britain.上世纪80年代初，虚构的日记主人公，少年安德里安?摩尔（Adrian Mole）告诉他父亲，福克兰群岛遭到入侵，老摩尔当即从床上一跃而起。他“还以为福克兰群岛在苏格兰沿海呢。”英国仍在南大西洋上拥有一群岛屿的主权，这看上去的确古怪。派遣一支海军特遣队奔袭8000英里（1英里约为1.6公里，译者注），为一处没多少居民的日不落帝国遗物而战，这件事看上去还更为古怪。自1982年以来，从某些方面来说，这一冲突似乎变得更加古怪了。尽管有这么多奇异之处，福克兰群岛战争仍然对英国政治有极大影响。

Among historians, the main debates about the war’s legacy concern Mrs Thatcher and her Conservative government.Could she have survived as prime minister had the Falklands not been retaken?(In her memoirs, she says not.)Would the Tories have won the 1983 election had Argentina never invaded?(Probably.)But the conflict also changed attitudes to foreign policy and war itself.史学家对这次战争遗留问题的主要争论与撒切尔夫人和她的保守党政府有关。如果英国未能夺回群岛，撒切尔能否保住她的首相职位？（她在自己的回忆录中说不能。）如果阿根廷从未入侵，保守党能否赢得1983年的大选？（或许可以。）但这次冲突也改变了人们对外交政策和战争本身的态度。

The dash acro the Atlantic and subsequent victory—almost as much of a surprise to many Britons as they were to the Argentines—seemed to mark an end to Britain’s apparently inevitable international decline, a retreat epitomized by the Suez debacle of 1956.After the 1970s, a decade in which, Europe aside, British leaders had mostly been preoccupied with domestic woes—receion;industrial unrest;an IMF bail-out—the Falklands made foreign affairs, and Britain’s clout in the world, measures of succeful leadership.That has remained the case ever since.横跨大西洋的远征以及随之而来的胜利不但让阿根廷人吃惊，也几乎同样让许多英国人吃惊。以1956年苏伊士运河败退 [注]为缩影，英国的国际地位看上去每况愈下；这次胜利似乎标志着这一状况的结束。不算欧洲，上世纪70年代是英国领袖主要考虑国内灾难的十年，其中包括经济衰退、工人罢工、国际货币基金组织的拯救行动等。此后的福克兰群岛战争使外交事务以及英国的国际势力变成了衡量英国领导人是否成功的标准。这一点直到今天依然如此。

And if Britain took more notice of the world after the Falklands, the reverse was true, too.“Everywhere I went after the war,” Lady Thatcher(as she later became)wrote in her memoirs, “Britain’s name meant something more than it had.” Oleg Gordievsky, a KGB officer stationed in London in 1982 who subsequently defected, remembers that the KGB confidently expected Britain to lose.如果说英国从福克兰群岛战争后更多地关注世界事务，这次战争也使世界更多地关注英国。后来受封为女勋爵的撒切尔在她的回忆录里写道：“在那次战争之后，无论我走到哪里，英国的名声都比过去更管用了。”一位1982年被派驻伦敦但后来投诚的克格勃官员奥列格?高蒂夫斯基（Oleg Gordievsky）还记得，克格勃曾非常有信心地等着看英国的笑话。

Glory days 光荣的日子

As Hew Strachan of Oxford University puts it, America’s experience in Vietnam had made war seem mey and unpredictable.Lady Thatcher’s victory suggested that war could achieve political ends quickly and efficiently.Where a knee-jerk antimilitarism had once prevailed, Britain’s armed forces came to seem noble and profeional: the “best in the world”, as British politicians’ constant refrain has it.正如牛津大学的修?斯特拉臣（Hew Strachan）所述，美国在越南的经历让人觉得战争肮脏而且无法预测。撒切尔夫人的胜利告诉人们：战争可以迅速、有效地完成政治目的。英国曾经是一个自然而然地普遍反战的国家，但这一次它的武装力量看上去崇高而又称职，似乎就像英国政治家们不断重复的赞美那样，是“世界上最优秀的。”

In 1982 the campaign looked like a strategic blip.The main job, during the cold war, was to defend Europe from the Soviet Union.In retrospect, observes Mr Strachan, it was the first in a series of short, sharp, expeditionary wars that Britain was to fight: later came the first Gulf war, Kosovo and the intervention in Sierra Leone.Consciously or otherwise, the triumph in the South Atlantic may have affected Britain’s appetite for those engagements.这次战争在1982年看上去像一次临时的战略转变，因为冷战时期西方的主要任务是保卫欧洲不受苏联侵略。斯特拉臣认为：现在回头看，那是英国参加的一系列短暂、激烈的远征战事的第一次，后来有第一次海湾战争、科索沃战争和对塞拉利昂（Sierra Leone）的干预。无论英国是否有所意识，南大西洋的胜利可能让它参与这些战争的胃口大开。

That run ended in Afghanistan and Iraq—miions that have involved elusive opponents, changing rationales and disappointingly uncertain outcomes.Little wonder that the Falklands war—which was fought against a state, for a simple cause and to a swift and absolute victory—still inspires pride and nostalgia in Britain.这种状况在阿富汗和伊拉克结束。那里的作战牵涉到难以捉摸的对手、不断变化的战场基本状况和极其未定的结局。因此，对抗一个国家、有明确的目标、迅速取得了压倒性胜利的福克兰群岛战争到今天还鼓舞着英国的自豪感和怀念心情，这也就不足为奇了。

Perhaps its most tangible impact has been on defence spending.Because of the war, the navy was protected from cuts for much longer than it would otherwise have been.Today the government estimates the cost of its commitment to the islands, including its garrison and air and sea links to Britain, as ￡200m($318m)a year.或许这场战争最让人感觉得到的影响是对防务费用的冲击。如果没有它，缩减海军预算的进程会提前许多。政府估计它今天在福克兰群岛投入的年费用为2亿英镑（3.18亿美元），其中包括驻守当地的卫戌部队和维持英国本土与它的空中与海上联系的花销。

The navy now finds itself temporarily without an aircraft-carrier, which has led to febrile speculation that, if lost, the islands could not be retaken.That is scaremongering, for two reasons.First, as Sir Lawrence Freedman, the war’s official historian, summarises, Britain would indeed struggle to recover the islands if they were overrun again—but defending them in the first place would be much easier, because of the men and kit now deployed there.海军在一段时间内将没有航空母舰服役，这让有些人头脑发热地猜测：一旦失守，英国将无力夺回福克兰群岛。出于两个原因，这种说法纯属危言耸听。首先，如该次战争的官方史学家劳伦斯?弗里德曼（Lawrence Freedman）勋爵所总结的那样，如果福克兰群岛再次被占领，收复它们的确不易；但若专注于保卫群岛则会容易许多，因为部队与装备已经部署在那里了。

Second, Argentina does not want to repeat the war, which triggered the end of military dictatorship and the advent of democracy.Subsequent governments have, however, retained their country’s claim to what Argentines call “Las Malvinas”.Cristina Fernández, Argentina’s president, has forsworn force as a tactic;yet as the 30th anniversary of the invasion approaches, she has energetically preed the case by other means(in a bid, some argue, to distract voters’ attention from high inflation and other economic woes).其次，阿根廷并不想再次发动战争。上次战争导致军事独裁政权的垮台与民主政治的到来，但此后的各届政府都继续声称阿根廷对他们所说的“马尔维纳斯群岛”拥有主权。阿根廷总统克里斯蒂娜?费尔南德斯（Cristina Fernández）曾发誓放弃考虑武力；而在入侵30周年即将到来之际，她积极地以其他手段在此问题上施压。有人认为，此举是为了转移选民对高通胀与其他经济灾难的关注。

Recent steps by her administration have been designed to impede tourism—along with fishing, a mainstay of the islands’ economy—and even Argentina’s overall trade with Britain.In that context, the friendly inducements she occasionally dangles before the 3,000 islanders don’t wash.“Everything they’ve done makes us deeply suspicious of everything they’ve offered us,” says Dick Sawle, a member of the Falklands’ legislative aembly.Ms Fernández has striven to enlist other governments in the region to her niggly campaign—likely to intensify if oil is produced in the islands’ waters.Rockhopper, an energy firm, found oil offshore in 2010, and says it expects to start production in 2016.她的政府最近设计采取的步骤是妨碍该群岛的旅游业和渔业，后者是群岛的经济支柱。他们甚至不惜损害阿根廷与英国的整体贸易。在这种情况下，她偶尔友好地对3000岛民伸出的诱惑橄榄枝没有说服力。“福克兰群岛立法议会”成员迪克?索尔（Dick Sawle）说：“他们的所作所为让我们对他们向我们提出的一切建议都深感怀疑。”费尔南德斯努力争取让该地区其他国家政府参与她的找茬攻势；这一攻势在该群岛海域出产石油后可能会进一步加强。2010年，一家能源公司，洛克霍普公司（Rockhopper）在该岛近海发现了石油；据该公司称，正式开采预计将于2016年开始。

For its part, the British government says it is absolutely committed to the islanders’ right of self-determination.They overwhelmingly wish to stay British, a desire that is the basis of the British claim to sovereignty.Compromise would anyway be impoible while the war is a living memory: polls suggest that public opinion in mainland Britain is firmly against any conceion.Jeremy Browne, the Foreign Office minister responsible for Falklands policy, doubts that, say, Brazil or Uruguay has much interest in a regional economic blockade of the islands.He thinks Argentina would be overreaching if it tried to organise one.That may prove optimistic, especially if an oil bonanza stimulates wider Latin American resource nationalism.英国政府方面声称，它完全尊重群岛岛民的自决权。占压倒多数的岛民希望继续保持英国公民身份，这一意愿是英国声称拥有该群岛主权的基础。在人们对战争记忆犹新的时刻，妥协无论如何也是不可能的：民调显示，英国本土公众舆论坚决反对任何让步。负责福克兰群岛政策的外交国务大臣杰里米?布朗（Jeremy Browne, the Foreign Office minister）不觉得诸如巴西或乌拉圭一类国家会对地区性封锁该群岛经济有多大兴趣。他认为，阿根廷组织这样封锁的结果只有因不自量力而失败。这话可能过于乐观，特别当庞大的石油贮藏刺激了更广泛的拉丁美洲资源民族主义的时候。

Mr Browne observes that tension over the Falklands has not followed a straight path: it is worse now than it was 15 years ago.The same may be true of the war’s emotional impact.Britain’s current leaders, who are mostly in their 40s, reached political consciousne in the early 1980s;the Tory half of the coalition, at least, reveres Lady Thatcher.Their views on the Falklands are noticeably firm.The war’s impact on Argentina was much more dramatic.But, quietly and enduringly, it left its mark on Britain, too.布劳恩注意到，福克兰群岛的局势紧张并非单向发展：现在的局势比15年前更为紧张。战争造成的情感冲击可能也是如此。当今英国的领袖们大多40多岁，他们在上世纪80年代初开始有政治意识；至少联合政府中的保守党成员尊敬撒切尔夫人。他们在福克兰群岛问题上的观点显然十分坚定。这次战争对阿根廷的冲击更加戏剧性得多，但它也静悄悄地在英国留下了持久的影响。

[注]1956年的苏伊士败退：1956年埃及政府宣布将苏伊士运河收归国有，造成英法两国与以色列不满。三国出兵进攻埃及，但在国际社会包括美国与苏联的强大压力之下被迫退兵。该危机直接导致英国艾登政府下台。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65944-1-1.html 译者：nayilus

[2012.03.30]Hong Kong tycoons under arrest 被拘捕的香港富商 Hong Kong tycoons under arrest 被拘捕的香港富商

Flying too close to the Sun? 亢龙有悔？

Mar 30th 2012, 2:38 by J.M.| BEIJING and S.C.| HONG KONG

It’s a long way down from the 102nd floor of the International Commerce Centre in Hong Kong, where Analects once enjoyed a really high tea(see picture).But the dizzine you feel looking out of the window cannot compare with the vertiginous sensation the building’s owners, Sun Hung Kai Properties, must now be feeling.Their co-chairmen, Thomas Kwok Ping-kwong and Raymond Kwok Ping-luen were arrested on March 29th by Hong Kong’s Independent Commiion Against Corruption(ICAC)under the Prevention of Bribery Ordinance.So too was a former head of Hong Kong’s civil service, Rafael Hui.The arrests are widely seen as among the most sensational in the commiion’s 38-year history.笔者曾在香港环球贸易广场的第102层喝过一次午茶，从102楼到地面的距离可不是开玩笑（见图）。你从窗户望出去会感觉到一阵头晕，但是这和该大楼的所有者新鸿基地产3月29日的感觉相比只是小巫见大巫。那天，新鸿基的双董事长郭炳江和郭炳联被香港廉政公署以违反《防止贿赂条例》拘捕。同样被拘捕的还有前政务司司长许仕仁。这一事件被广泛看成是香港廉政公署38年历史上最轰动的一次拘捕。

The ICAC is, as usual, saying extremely little about the case, which involves one of Hong Kong’s wealthiest families.Sun Hung Kai’s buildings include the three tallest in Hong Kong.But the investigation will generate enormous media interest.The Kwok family has long been a topic of much goip in the territory because of feuding among its members.In addition there have been growing concerns in Hong Kong about the cosine of relations between its leaders and busine tycoons.Last month the ICAC launched an investigation into the behaviour of Hong Kong’s chief executive, Donald Tsang, because of hospitality he had received from wealthy businepeople.This is the first action ever taken by the ICAC involving someone of his paramount rank.Mr Tsang denied breaking rules but apologised for failing to live up to public expectations.这桩案件涉及的是香港最富有家族之一，新鸿基地产旗下的产业包括香港最高的三座大楼，而廉政公署如往常一样几乎没有透露任何案情内容。虽然如此，案件调查还是会受到巨大的媒体关注。郭家因为其家族成员之间的内斗长久以来都是香港坊间八卦的话题。此外，香港人也越来越担忧其政治领导人和商业大亨之间往来过密。上个月香港特首曾荫权因为接受富商的招待而受到廉政公署的调查。这是廉政公署历史上第一次围绕香港最高官员开展行动。曾荫权否认自己违反了任何法规，但对于自己没有达到公众的期望这一点进行了道歉。

Public disquiet about the tycoons’ influence was evident during the recent competition to replace Mr Tsang, who completes his term of office at the end of June.A former civil-service chief, Henry Tang, was at one time thought to be China’s favourite for the job(an endorsement that carries enormous weight among the fewer than 1,200 members of the election committee).But public opinion turned against him, partly because of his tycoon background, forcing China to switch sides to Leung Chun-ying, a man with a more populist reputation who is regarded with some suspicion by the tycoons(see this analysis by Reuters of the political role of Hong Kong’s rich).曾荫权的任职将于6月底到期，从最近决定其继任的竞争中很明显可以看出公众对于富商的政治影响力感到不安。前政务司司长唐英年一度曾被看作是中央政府心目中的最佳人选（中央的支持对于人数不到1200人的选举委员会有举足轻重的影响）。但是在一定程度上因为其富商背景，他受到公众舆论的猛烈抨击，最终迫使中央不得不弃他转而支持梁振英。外界认为梁振英更具有民粹主义倾向，香港富商对他很不信任。（点击查看路透社关于香港富人政治角色的分析）

Online commentators in the rest of China are keenly watching the ICAC’s moves.For all the Hong Kong public’s worries about corruption, their counterparts elsewhere in the country have a good deal more to complain about.Even Chinese officials sometimes speak admiringly of the ICAC’s ability to operate without political interference and of Hong Kong officialdom’s relatively clean conduct.But the Communist Party has been reluctant to give anti-corruption institutions the same independent powers as the ICAC for fear of weakening the party’s authority and embarraing its leaders.As we reported in Banyan this week, Bo Xilai, Chongqing’s recently deposed party chief, is alleged by party officials to have tried blocking a corruption investigation involving his family.It is widely believed, however, that the accusations being levelled against Mr Bo are themselves motivated as much if not more by political rivalry than by any wrongdoing.中国其它地方的网路评论员都在热切观望香港廉政公署的行动。虽然香港公众对于腐败非常担忧，大陆公众抱怨的腐败现象可比香港多多了。就算大陆官员偶尔也会对香港廉政公署能够不受政治干扰行事以及香港官场相对较为清廉这两点表示钦佩。但是中共目前为止还不太原意让大陆的反腐机构拥有香港廉政公署那样的独立权力，因为他们害怕这会削弱党的权威，也会让中共领导人尴尬。正如本周在Banyan专栏的报道所写那样，据党内官员所说，最近被撤职的重庆市委书记***曾试图压下一起涉及其家人的腐败调查。不过很多人相信在针对***指控的背后动机里，政治斗争占的分量至少要和任何实际错误占的分量一样大，甚至更大。

At an annual meeting of anti-corruption officials on March 26th, China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao, had little progre to point to.He said there were still frequent corruption cases “in departments that poe great power and in areas where the management of funds is centralised”.This was in spite of investigations last year into 2,524 officials at or above the rank of county leader, including seven minister-level officials(compared with 2,723 such officials investigated in 2010, including six of ministerial rank).“Corruption is the most crucial threat to the ruling party”, he said, repeating a well-worn line.3月26日在一年一度的廉政工作会议上，中国总理温家宝找不出反腐工作有任何显著进展。他提到腐败现象“在行政权力集中的部门和资金资源管理权集中的领域”还很常见。尽管去年一年因腐败查办的就有县处级以上官员2524人，包括省部级官员7人（相比之下，2010年查办的县处级以上官员是2723人，包括省部级官员6人），腐败问题仍然猖獗。温家宝总理又再次强调一句老话：“执政党最大危险是腐败。”

Some of China’s bolder media have dared to suggest the obvious.“If you think that China’s problem can be solved by holding a meeting and iuing a directive, you are cheating yourself and cheating others”, said a commentary in Shenzhen Evening News(here, in Chinese), a newspaper in the Chinese city that borders on Hong Kong.It said that among the many “simple” solutions would be to set up an ICAC.Shangdu.com, a web portal in the central province of Henan, published a commentary arguing much the same.It said Hong Kong’s ICAC enjoyed high public approval because it operated according to procedures over which the public had oversight.“Citizens all have the right to make those who violate the procedures, or fail to uphold them properly, pay the price”, it said(here, in Chinese).中国一些较大胆的媒体对这些人人心知肚明的事情也敢旁敲侧击了。和香港相邻的深圳市的一间报社《深圳晚报》发表了一篇评论，提道：“如果以为中国的问题开个会，发个通知就能解决，那真是自欺欺人”（点击见原文）。它提出很多“简单”的解决办法中的一条就是建立廉政公署。中部省份河南的一个网站商都网发表了一篇观点类似的评论。它认为香港廉政公署之所以受到公众高度支持是因为它是基于公众可以监督的程序运作的。文中提到“无论是违反制度者，还是制度执行不力者，公众都有权利让其付出代价”（点击见原文）。

Hong Kong’s citizens may sometimes moan that their democratic rights are stifled, but seen from the rest of China the territory remains a paragon of the rule of law.香港市民可能有时会埋怨一下他们的民主权利受到了抑制，但是从中国其它地方看来，香港还是一个法治的典范。

译者注

标题“too close to sun”是指希腊神话中伊卡洛斯用蜡制的翅膀飞翔，过于接近太阳蜡翼融化而落海身亡。作为比喻有行事超过一定尺度导致玩火自焚的意思，一定程度上接近中文的“亢龙有悔”。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65691-1-1.html 译者：nayilus

[2012.03.24]South China Sea: Full unclosure?南中国海地位未定？ South China Sea

南中国海波诡云谲

Full unclosure? 全然未定？

As oil-and-gas exploration intensifies, so does the bickering 在加紧勘探油气田的紧锣密鼓声中，争吵也同时加剧 Mar 24th 2012 | SINGAPORE | from the print edition

“THE South China Sea,” noted the People’s Daily this week, “is currently calm and peaceful”.As far as that goes, the Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece was quite right.But the sea also remains in dispute, with China and five other countries having claims to some or all of its islands, rocks and waters.It is also a cause of superpower rivalry.America aerts its own “national interest” in the freedom of navigation in the sea, and, like the South-East Asian claimants to the sea, sees China as the threat.For that, the ambiguity that shrouds China’s own position has much to do with it.《人民日报》本周指出：“今天的南海风平浪静。”就目前情况而言，这份中共喉舌报纸所说无误。但南海问题仍有争议：中国与其他五国已对其一部分或全部岛屿、礁石与海域提出主权声索。这也是造成超级大国对抗的一个原因。美国声称，在该海域的航行自由关系到它的“国家利益”；而且它也和东南亚声索国一样，把中国视为威胁。中国对其本身立场的阐述不清与“威胁论”有很大关系。

The two most active disputes concern the right to exploration for what may be enormous reserves of hydrocarbons, making the sea such a prize.On March 15th Vietnam protested against an announcement by China’s state-owned offshore-oil company that it was seeking bids for the rights to drill in 19 blocks.Vietnam pointed out that one block was just one mile(1.6km)from an island in the Paracel chain, which Vietnam claims, having been evicted from there by China in 1974.争议最大的两处地点都与油气勘探权有关。该海域油气储备可能十分庞大，因此令各方看重。中国国企中海油对19个海域区块的钻探权招标，越南政府3月15日就此提出抗议，指出其中1个区块距离西沙群岛某岛只有1.6公里（1英里）；越南认为它对该岛拥有主权，但1974年中国占领该岛，驱逐了越南驻军。

Meanwhile, to the south, China itself has objected to plans by the Philippines to open areas in the Reed bank, off the island of Palawan, for oil-and-gas exploration.The Philippines claims the area as part of the “exclusive economic zone”(EEZ)attached to its main archipelago.同时，为勘探油气田，菲律宾计划开放南海南部巴拉望岛外礼乐滩的一些水域；中国反对此举。菲律宾声称该地区是与它的主要群岛相连的“专属经济区”（exclusive economic zone(EEZ)）的一部分。

The area falls within the “nine-dashed line”, dating to maps from the pre-Communist era in the late 1940s, that China says proves its sovereignty.That line, which has no basis in international law, is one reason other countries are so wary of China’s intentions.中国认为，在中共1949年掌权以前的地图上划有 “南海九段线”，这是它对该海域拥有主权的证明，而上述区域位于南海九段线之内。但这条线没有国际法依据，因此是其他国家提防中国的一个原因。

However, in this case, China does seem to be basing the claim on the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS).China(like Taiwan and Vietnam)also claims the entire Spratly archipelago.These are mainly tiny, uninhabitable rocks and islets which, under UNCLOS, would be entitled to “territorial waters” of just 12 nautical miles(22km).However, Robert Beckman, a profeor of international law at the National University of Singapore, has pointed out that China could claim that some features near Reed bank qualify as “islands”, under UNCLOS, having their own full 200-mile EEZ, which would overlap with the Philippines’.但在这件事上，中国的立场似乎确实以《联合国海洋法公约》（United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS)）为依据。中国也与台湾和越南一样声称拥有整个南沙群岛的主权。按《联合国海洋法公约》规定，该群岛主要由无人居住的小礁石和小岛组成，只有12海里（22公里）领海权；但新加坡国立大学（National University of Singapore）国际法教授罗伯特?贝克曼（Robert Beckman）指出，中国可以声称，南沙群岛中距礼乐滩不远的一些地域有资格称为“岛”，因而按《联合国海洋法公约》规定有完整的200海里专属经济区，而这一专属经济区与菲律宾的专属经济区重叠。

If China were to limit itself to claims based on UNCLOS, things would be clearer.In this context, Taylor Fravel of the Maachusetts Institute of Technology has pointed to a seemingly encouraging statement from the Chinese foreign ministry in late February that “no country including China has claimed sovereignty over the entire South China Sea.”

如果中国把自己的声索限制在《联合国海洋法公约》的基础上，情况就会清楚些了。关于这一点，麻省理工学院的傅泰林（Taylor Fravel）认为，中国外交部发言人2月底的讲话似乎十分鼓舞人心：“没有任何国家包括中国对整个南海提出主权声索。”

This could be interpreted to mean that the nine-dashed line is not a claim to all the sea’s waters, simply to the land features.But it does not quite say so—after all, the line does not encompa all of the South China Sea, just nearly all.这可以解释为，南海九段线并非声索南海全部海域，而只声索地域。但对此中国并未明言——说到底，这条线虽然几乎包围了整个南海，但却并非全部。

With the Philippines, China does seem to be taking a somewhat softer line, pushing the poibility of joint oil-and-gas development.And the People’s Daily was keen to blame America for any tension in the sea.It was responding to a pre conference by General Burton Field, the commander of American forces in Japan, at which he called on China to respect the freedom of navigation.中国对菲律宾的态度似乎不算强硬，还向它推销联合开发油气田的主张。但《人民日报》热衷于将这一区域的任何摩擦归罪于美国。它回敬了驻日美军司令博尔顿?菲尔德（Burton Field）将军在记者招待会上呼吁中国“尊重航行自由”的说法。

The People’s Daily, rightly again, argued that this is not at present under threat.It had a point when it argued that America may be blurring the iues as part of its “return to Asia” strategy, which includes strengthening its ties with China’s neighbours.But for the uncomfortable realisation that this strategy has been broadly welcomed in the region, China has itself to blame.《人民日报》再次正确地指出，航行自由当前并未受到威胁。它认为美国故意混淆这些问题，可能是它 “重返亚洲”战略的一步棋；该战略包括加强它与中国的邻国之间的关系。这一说法也很有道理。但这一战略在该地区受到广泛支持，这种局面令中国不舒服，但有些地方也怪它自己。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65573-1-1.html 译者：悠悠万事97

[2012.03.24]Revolution in retreat 古巴革命正在退却

Revolution in retreat 古巴革命正在退却

Under Raúl Castro, Cuba has begun the journey towards capitalism.But it will take a decade and a big political battle to complete, writes Michael Reid 在劳尔?卡斯特罗的领导下，古巴已经开始向资本主义转变。但完成这个转变需要十年的时间和剧烈的政治斗争。（迈克尔?里德）

WHEN ON JULY 31st 2006 Cuban state television broadcast a terse statement from Fidel Castro to say that he had to undergo emergency surgery and was temporarily handing over to his brother, Raúl(pictured with Fidel, left), it felt like the end of an era.The man who had dominated every aspect of life on the island for almost half a century seemed to be on his way out.In the event Fidel survived, and nothing appeared to change.Even so, that July evening marked the start of a slow but irreversible dismantling of communism(officially, “socialism”)in one of the tiny handful of countries in which it survived into the 21st century.2006年7月31日，古巴国家电视台播放了菲德尔?卡斯特罗的一个简短声明，声明说，他必须接受紧急手术，他的弟弟劳尔将暂时代理他的职务。这使人们感觉像是一个时代的结束，这位支配这个岛国近半个世纪的人看来正在离开历史舞台。后来菲德尔恢复了健康，看起来什么也没有改变。即便如此，那个7月的夜晚还是标志了古巴共产主义（正式称谓是“社会主义”）开始了缓慢但不可逆转的瓦解过程。古巴是少数几个在21世纪仍然存活的社会主义国家之一。

Raúl Castro, who formally took over as Cuba’s president in February 2008 and as first secretary of the Communist Party in April 2011, is trying to revive the island’s moribund economy by transferring a substantial chunk of it from state to private hands, with profound social and political implications.He has abolished a few of the many petty restrictions that pervade Cubans’ lives.He has also freed around 130 political prisoners.His government has signed the UN covenants on human rights, something his brother had jibbed at for three decades.Repreion has become le brutal, though two prisoners have died on hunger strikes.Cubans grumble far more openly than they used to, and academic debate has become a bit freer.But calls for democracy and free elections are still silenced.The Communist Party remains the only legal political party in Cuba.And Raúl Castro has repeatedly dashed the hopes of many Cubans that the hated exit visa, which makes it hard(and for some, impoible)to leave the country, will be scrapped.劳尔?卡斯特罗于2008年2月正式接任古巴总统，2011年4月接任共产党第一书记。他为了重振这个岛国濒危的经济，正在把相当一部分国有企业转变为私人所有，这个举措具有深远的社会和政治意义。他放松了在古巴人生活中无处不在的各种限制，释放了约一百三十名政治犯。他的政府签署了联合国人权公约，这是他哥哥踌躇了三十年都没有做的事情。尽管最近有两名犯人因绝食而死，但镇压手段已经不像过去那样残酷了。古巴人现在可以比过去更为公开地发牢骚，学术争论的空气也比过去自由一点儿。但是，要求民主和自由选举的呼声仍然受到压制，共产党仍然是古巴唯一的合法政党。古巴现行的出境签证制度遭人痛恨，因为它使出国非常困难，有些人甚至完全出不了国，但劳尔?卡斯特罗一再拒绝了改变这个制度的要求。

The economic reforms, set out in 313 “guidelines” approved by a Communist Party congre in April 2011, are being implemented slowly and with great caution.That is because they face stubborn resistance from within the party and the bureaucracy.Indeed, the leadership shuns the word “reform”, let alone “transition”.Those terms are contaminated by the collapse of the Soviet Union, an event that still traumatises Cuba’s leaders.Officially, the changes are described as an “updating” in which “non-state actors” and “co-operatives” will be promoted.But whatever the language, this means an emerging private sector.在2011年的共产党代表大会上，通过了实行经济改革的313条“指导方针”，现在改革正在缓慢地、极为谨慎地进行着，因为它受到来自党内和官僚基层的顽强抵抗。事实上，领导层避免使用“改革”这个词，更不要说“转型”了，因为这些词语与苏联的崩溃相联系，而古巴领导人仍然没有从苏联崩溃的伤痛中恢复过来。在官方语言中，目前的变化，包括促进“非国有部门”和“集体所有”部门的发展，都被称为“更新”。但是不管怎样用词，私人经济部门事实上正在兴起。

The new president often says his aim is to “make socialism sustainable and irreversible”.The economy will continue to be based on planning, not the market, and “the concentration of property” will be prohibited, Raúl Castro insisted in a speech to the National Aembly in December 2010.He is careful not to contradict his elder brother openly: his every speech contains several reverential quotes from Fidel, who despite his semi-retirement is consulted about big decisions.(For brevity and clarity this report will refer to each Castro brother by his first name.)新总统经常说，他的目的是“使社会主义保持活力和不可动摇“。在2010年12月的全国代表大会上，劳尔?卡斯特罗说，经济仍然建立在计划基础上而不是市场基础上，并且不容许“财产的集中化”。他很注意不表现出和他哥哥有任何不一致之处：他的每次讲话都要虔诚地引用菲德尔的语录。虽然菲德尔已经半退休了，但做出重大决定前仍要征求他的意见。（为了简洁和清晰，本报告将省略这兄弟两人的姓氏，使用各自的名字以示区别。）

Fidel’s frail and ghostly presence in his compound in Siboney, a leafy enclave of mansions on Havana’s western outskirts, doubtle checks the speed of reform.But he no longer controls the levers of power and rarely comments on domestic politics.菲德尔在斯伯尼的住宅是在哈瓦那西郊一个林荫浓密的院落内，他虽然身体虚弱，极少露面，但他的存在本身无疑限制了改革的速度。不过他已不再掌控权力，也很少对国内事务发表意见。

This special report will argue that whatever the intentions of Cuba’s Communist leaders, they will find it impoible to prevent their island from moving to some form of capitalism.What is harder to predict is whether they will remain in control of the proce of change, or whether it will lead to democracy.我们将在本报告[注1]中论证，不管古巴共产党的意图是什么，他们已不可能阻止这个岛国走向某种形式的资本主义。难以预测的只有两个问题：他们是否能持续控制变化的进程；这种变化是否会带来民主。

No turning back this time When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, many outsiders believed that communism in Cuba was doomed.Maive Soviet subsidies and military aid for Cuba had offset the economic embargo imposed by the United States in 1960.By the 1970s they had also brought stability after Fidel had all but bankrupted the island by his manic shifts from forced industrialisation back to exaggerated reliance on sugar, the economy’s mainstay since colonial days.The overnight withdrawal of Soviet subsidies and trade links caused Cuba’s economy to contract by 35% between 1989 and 1993(see chart 1).目前的改革不可逆转

当苏联于1991年崩溃时，很多人认为共产主义在古巴的前途暗淡了。自美国于1960年开始对古巴实行经济封锁以来，苏联提供的巨额补贴和军援抵消了封锁的影响。在上世纪七十年代，菲德尔放弃了强制工业化进程，转而完全依赖自殖民时代就是古巴经济主体的蔗糖业，使这个岛国濒临破产边缘，也是苏联的援助维持了古巴的稳定。苏联一夜之间停止了援助和贸易关系，使古巴的经济从1989到1993年间缩水了35%（见图1）。

In response, Fidel declared a national emergency, dubbed “The Special Period in Peacetime”.He opened the island to foreign investment and ma tourism and legalised small family businees and the use of the dollar.But then he found a new benefactor in Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, who began to provide Cuba with cheap oil.A big chunk of that is officially counted as a swap of oil for the services of some 20,000 Cuban doctors, sports instructors and security advisers working in Venezuela.China, too, emerged as a new source of credit.为了对付这个局面，菲德尔宣布国家处于紧急状态，他称之为“和平时期的特殊阶段”。他为外国投资打开了门户，开启了规模巨大的旅游业，使小家庭企业和美元流通合法化。但是不久，委内瑞拉的胡戈?查韦斯成了新的援助者，他给古巴提供了廉价的石油。作为交换，大约两万名古巴医生、体育教员和安全专家在委内瑞拉工作，支付了石油价值的一大步部分。中国也成为贷款的来源之一。

Thus bolstered, Fidel reversed course again.Many family businees, as well as some foreign ventures, were shut down;the dollar ceased to be legal tender in 2004.The ageing leader launched “the Battle of Ideas”, sending out armies of youths as ill-trained teachers and social workers.委内瑞拉和中国的帮助给古巴打了强心针，菲德尔再次扭转方向。很多家庭企业和一些外国投资项目被关闭，美元流通也在2004年又成为非法。年迈的菲德尔发起了“为理想而奋斗”运动，把大批缺乏训练的年轻人送去做教师和社会工作者。

This time, Raúl has insisted, there will be no turning back: the reforms will happen sin prisa, pero sin pausa(slowly but steadily).But Raúl is no liberal.He and Ernesto “Che” Guevara, the Argentine adventurer who died in Bolivia in 1967, were the orthodox Marxists among the leaders of Fidel’s Rebel Army, the ragtag band of bearded guerrillas who toppled the corrupt, American-backed dictatorship of Fulgencio Batista.As defence minister from 1959 to 2008, Raúl set up and led Cuba’s formidable armed forces.劳尔说，这次的改革不会逆转了：改革将缓慢但稳步地展开。但劳尔并不是一个自由主义者。他和1967年死于玻利维亚的阿根廷冒险家埃内斯托?“切”?格瓦拉一样，是菲德尔的反叛军领导者中的正统马克思主义者。这个反叛军是由一群衣衫褴褛、留着大胡子的游击队员组成的，他们推翻了美国人支持的、腐败的富尔亨西奥?巴蒂斯塔的独裁统治。从1959到2008年，作为国防部长，劳尔创建并领导了古巴的强大武装力量。

When Raúl took over from Fidel, he moved slowly at first, amid factional fighting.To general surprise, the men who lost out in 2009 were Carlos Lage, who had run the economy since the Special Period and was seen as a reformer, and Felipe Pérez Roque, the young foreign minister.They were denounced for having criticised the Castros(Mr Lage was caught on tape describing the leadership as “living foils”)and for having been corrupted by power.Instead, José Ramón Machado Ventura, an 81-year-old Stalinist, was named as Raúl’s deputy.劳尔接替菲德尔之后，在派别斗争的漩涡中，他一开始采取了缓慢推进的策略。出乎人们意料的是，在2009年有两个人在派别斗争中失势；一个是卡洛斯拉格，他自菲德尔的“特殊阶段”开始就掌管经济事务，并被人看作是一个改革者；另一个是年轻的外长菲利普?佩雷斯?洛克。他们被指控曾经批评卡斯特罗兄弟（拉格先生说领导人是“活化石”时被人录了像）而且被权力所腐蚀。此外，81岁的斯大林主义者何塞?拉蒙被任命为劳尔的副手。

But Raúl also quietly discarded nearly all of Fidel’s ministers and key aides.Their replacements are mostly army officers.Rafael Hernández, an academic who edits Temas, a quarterly journal attached to the culture ministry, points out that many of them are engineers by profeion.然而劳尔也悄悄地摆脱了菲德尔的几乎所有部长和关键助手，接替他们的大多数是军队官员。文化部下属季刊《Temas》编辑、学者拉斐尔?赫尔南德斯指出，这些官员大多数有工程专业背景。

Fidel ruled Cuba through the unbridled exercise of his maive ego.He centralised all power in his own hands, imposed Utopian egalitarianism and performed frequent policy swerves.By all accounts, Raúl is more modest, by nature a delegator and team-builder, more interested in getting things done than making speeches.When he took over in 2006 he put an end to the 4am meetings his brother loved.He is the Sancho Panza to Fidel’s Don Quijote(they even look the parts).劳尔统治古巴的方式体现了他极度自负的性格。他把所有的权力都集中到自己手里，奉行乌托邦式的平均主义，政策变化无常。尽管如此，劳尔仍然是比较温和的。从特性上说，他是一个善于分权和发挥团队作用的领导人，着重于做事而不是演讲。在2006年上任后，他取消了菲德尔喜欢的早晨四点钟举行会议的惯例。他是桑丘潘沙，菲德尔是唐吉坷德（他们两人甚至长得像这两个角色）。[注2]

Raúl seems to be acutely conscious that Cuban communism is living on borrowed time.The economy is groly unproductive.Venezuelan aid in 2008 was offset by devastating hurricanes and the knock-on effects of the global financial crisis on Cuba’s tourism and trade.The country is running down its capital, but living standards remain frugal.Its famed social services are no longer affordable.The population is shrinking.Mr Chávez, its Venezuelan patron, is being treated for cancer and faces a close election in October.And the Cuban leadership is gerontocratic: Fidel is 85, Raúl is 80 and the average age of the Politburo is over 70.The históricos, as those who fought in the revolution are known, are dying off.With Mr Lage gone, they have no visible succeors.Raúl’s opportunity to institutionalise the system has come very late in the day.“We either rectify things, or we run out of time to carry on skirting the aby *and+we sink,” he warned in his December 2010 speech.劳尔看起来充分意识到古巴共产主义的时间非常紧迫。经济完全缺乏效率。2008年委内瑞拉的援助被灾难性的飓风和全球金融危机对古巴旅游业和贸易的打击所抵消。国家的资金迅速缩水，但人民生活水准依然低下。古巴著名的社会服务已经入不敷出。人口也在减少。她的资助者、委内瑞拉的查韦斯先生正接受癌症治疗，而且面临着将于十月份举行的势均力敌的大选。此外，古巴政治是老人政治：菲德尔85岁，劳尔89岁，政治局的平均年龄是70多岁。那些1959年革命的参加者正在陆续离开人世。在拉格先生被解职后，他们没有明显的继任者。劳尔进行制度性变革的机会来得太晚了。他在2010年12月的讲话中说：“我们或者是进行变革，或者是失去跳过深渊的时机而从此沉没。”

-------------------------[注1]本文是《经济学人》3月24日期关于古巴的七篇系列报告的第一篇。[注2]桑丘潘沙和唐吉坷德是小说《唐吉坷德》中的两个主要人物，前者是后者的随从。http://ecocn.org/thread-65453-1-1.html 译者：西米

[2012.03.24]Adagio, OPERA 悠着点，OPERA Neutrinos 中微子

Adagio, OPERA 悠着点，OPERA

An experiment clocks neutrinos at their expected clip—ie, not faster than light 一项实验检测了中微子的速度，结果符合预想；也就是说并未超过光速

Mar 24th 2012 | from the print edition

FOUR weeks ago researchers at the OPERA collaboration, in Italy, discovered a glitch that may account for their startling finding last September that elusive particles called neutrinos move faster than light, in flagrant disregard of Albert Einstein’s theory of relativity.Now the first crocheck from a rival experiment seems to vindicate the overwhelming majority of physicists who were convinced all along that an error must have crept in to OPERA’s analysis.On March 16th members of the ICARUS collaboration posted a paper on arXiv, an online repository, which reports that neutrinos they looked at are not travelling faster than light.4周前，意大利的OPERA合作（OPERA collaboration）团队的研究人员发现了一个仪器有点问题，这或许可以解释他们去年9月震惊一时的发现：一种名为中微子的诡秘粒子居然违反了阿尔伯特?爱因斯坦的相对论，速度超过了光速。现在，同行的另一实验第一次核查了结果，似乎证实了绝大多数物理学家一直确信的情况：在OPERA的研究中一定发生了什么失误。3月16日，ICARUS合作团队的成员在网上智库arXiv上贴出了一篇论文，宣称他们追踪的中微子的速度并未超过光速。

Both OPERA and ICARUS study neutrinos sent from Europe’s main particle-physics laboratory, CERN.The particles are created in one of CERN’s accelerators, located just outside Geneva, and travel through the Earth’s crust to a laboratory beneath Gran Sao, a mountainous maif in the Apennines.ICARUS’s measurements, all seven of them(not bad, given neutrinos’ unwillingne to interact with anything, including detectors), were taken at the end of last year, after the beam had been tweaked to improve the accuracy of the data.OPERA和ICARUS团队都在研究从欧洲主要的粒子物理实验室CERN中发出的中微子。这些粒子是在CERN在日内瓦郊外的一台加速器中产生的，它们穿过地壳，到达阿尔卑斯山脉格兰萨索（Gran Sao）群峰地层之下的另一个实验室。ICARUS团队的全部七次检测都是在中微子束经过改进从而提高了数据精度之后，于去年年底进行的。中微子惰性很强，与任何事物包括检测器都很少有相互作用，所以能有七次成功的实验算是很不错的了。

OPERA, too, tapped the modified beam, but reported in November that its un-Einsteinian result persisted.But then, on February 23rd, its researchers owned up to discovering what could be a source of experimental error in the Global Positioning System(GPS)signals used to synchronise atomic clocks at either end of the neutrino beam.Specifically, it concerns the optical-fibre connector that brings the GPS signal to OPERA’s master clock.This, the OPERA team said, may not have been functioning properly when the measurements were taken.OPERA团队同样用经过改进的中微子束进行实验，但他们去年11月再次报告了与爱因斯坦理论相悖的结果。后来，今年2月23日，该团队的研究人员承认，他们用以使中微子束两端的原子钟同步的全球定位系统（GPS）信号中发现了可能导致实验误差的来源。具体地说，这与将GPS信号传输到OPERA主时钟的光纤连接器有关。OPERA团队认为，该连接器可能在他们进行实验时工作不正常。

According to an anonymous leak published on the website of Science magazine, after tightening the connection and then measuring the time it takes data to travel the length of the fibre, the researchers found that the data arrive 60 nanoseconds earlier.That is precisely the time by which neutrinos appeared to have overtaken light on their 730km(450-mile)trip.据在《科学》杂志网站上匿名贴出的一则泄露报告称，把接头拧紧后再行测试，研究人员发现，数据通过光纤全长的时间缩短了60毫微秒。这正是中微子在其730公里（450英里）的行程中好像比光提前到达的时间。

However, in February OPERA still seemed to be hedging its bets.Its researchers pointed to a second potential source of error which, if confirmed, would actually reinforce its surprise result.(This was related to a device called an oscillator, used to provide the time stamps needed to synchronise the clocks at CERN and Gran Sao.)ICARUS’s findings now make that much le likely.但2月份OPERA团队似乎还未放弃赌注。该团队的研究人员指出了第二个可能的误差来源，如经证实，它实际上可以强化他们的爆炸性结果。（这一误差来源与一种名为振荡器的装置有关，这一装置为CERN与格兰萨索实验室中的原子钟提供同步所需的时间标识。）ICARUS团队的发现令这一可能性大为减小。

Sergio Bertolucci, CERN’s research director, strees that throughout the superluminal saga OPERA’s researchers have behaved with “perfect scientific integrity”.They have opened their methods and data to scrutiny and invited independent measurements.The superluminal jolt spurred physicists to action.“This is how science works,” Dr Bertolucci says.CERN的研究主任萨尔吉奥?贝尔托卢奇（Sergio Bertolucci）强调，在整个超光速问题的探讨过程中，OPERA的研究人员表现出了“完美的科学诚信”。他们公开了他们的研究方法和数据供人们仔细检查，并鼓励他人的独立实验。超光速造成的震撼让物理学家振奋，并投入了进一步工作。“科学工作就该如此，”贝尔托卢奇博士这样说。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65447-1-1.html 译者：悠悠万事97

[2012.03.17]Afghanistan: The lowered bar still looks high 难以逾越的障碍 Afghanistan 阿富汗

The lowered bar still looks high 两国消除了部分隔阂，但障碍似乎仍难以逾越

A random maacre knocks even more confidence in the Western strategy 一次意外的屠杀事件进一步损害了外界对西方战略的信任 Mar 17th 2012 | KABUL | from the print edition

WESTERN ambitions in Afghanistan have shrunk to a level so modest, they hardly seem commensurate with the investment of blood and treasure.This week, immediately before talks with President Barack Obama that were dominated by the war, David Cameron, Britain’s prime minister, defined “doing the job” in Afghanistan as leaving the country “looking after its own security, not being a haven for terror, without the involvement of foreign troops.” That does not seem too much to ask.Democracy, women’s rights, even political stability: all these are now at best subsidiary parts of a job that has consumed the past decade.At present the campaign involves a NATO-led International Security Aistance Force, ISAF, of 130,000 soldiers, 90,000 of them American.西方目前在阿富汗想达到的战略目标是如此有限，与遭受的人员伤亡及投入资金极不相称。本周，就在与奥巴马总统举行主要讨论阿富汗战争的会谈前不久，英国首相大卫-卡梅伦将在阿富汗 “执行任务”定义为：让阿富汗“在没有外国军队协助的情况下，自己能够胜任安保工作、不再是恐怖分子的避风港”。这个要求似乎并不过分。民主、妇女权利甚至政治稳定：现在充其量只能算是西方在阿富汗开展行动（已经持续了十年）的次要目标。目前，在阿富汗执行任务的是一支由北约领导的国际安全援助部队（ISAF），该部队一共有13万名士兵，其中的9万人都来自美国。

In the early hours of March 11th one of those Americans apparently lost his mind and went on a murderous rampage in Kandahar province, killing 16 Afghans, including nine children, in their homes.After that, it is hard to dispel the notion that ISAF’s miion, even with its truncated objectives, is in serious trouble.As American soldiers and officials have been quick to point out, this was a freak if horrific incident.It could happen to any army anywhere.Yet it happened to NATO’s in Afghanistan, and not long after some of its soldiers had caused outrage by mindlely burning copies of the Koran.Others had been filmed apparently urinating on the corpses of militants they had just killed.在3月11日早晨，一名据说丧失理智的美国士兵在坎大哈省闯入居民家中枪杀了16名阿富汗人，受害者当中有9名是儿童。这次事件发生以后，不得不让人产生一种感觉：虽然国际安全援助部队的任务目标已经缩减，但即使是要实现缩减后的目标现在也有大麻烦了。就像美国士兵及官员后来迅速指出的那样，这一事件虽然可怕但却反常。类似事件可能发生在全球各地的任何一支军队中。然而，在几名士兵无意中焚烧了《古兰经》导致阿富汗民众愤怒之后不久，驻阿富汗的北约军队就发生了这一事件。还有其他士兵被拍到似乎在他们之前刚杀死的武装分子的尸体上小便。

It all adds up to an abiding, albeit unfair, impreion of an army that has lost both its discipline and its sense of purpose.Taliban and other insurgents use indiscriminate methods of slaughter and are responsible, according to the United Nations, for nearly four-fifths of civilian deaths.Even so, the Taliban accused “sick-minded American savages” of a “blood-soaked and inhumane crime”.尽管不太公平，但所有这些事件都更加让人觉得这支军队已经丧失了纪律与目标。据联合国称，阿富汗平民死亡人数中有五分之四都是由塔利班及其他武装分子发动袭击造成的，而且他们在袭击时不区分平民和军人。尽管如此，塔利班仍然谴责“神智错乱的残暴的美国人”犯下了“血腥的、不人道的罪行”。

Wrong place, wrong time 错误的地点，错误的时间

Worse, it happened in a district where ISAF had made some of its most intense efforts to win local trust.Panjwai, not far from Kandahar city, was a crucible of the Taliban movement in the 1990s and a centre of militant violence until the “surge” of foreign troops in 2009.After that, under Fazluddin Agha, a formidable local governor, security improved, and foreign money has been poured into opening schools and clinics.更糟的是，该事件发生在距坎大哈市不远的本杰瓦尔。国际安全援助部队（ISAF）尽了最大的努力试图赢得当地居民的信任。该地区在上世纪90年代是塔利班活动的中心；在2009年大量外国军队被派遣到这里之前是武装分子发动暴力袭击的中心。外国军队入驻之后，在一位强硬的当地长官Fazluddin Agha的治理下，该地区的安全状况有所改善，大量的外国资金投入到学校与诊所的建设当中。

Mr Agha was killed by a suicide-bomber in January, but his influence may help explain the relatively restrained reaction in Panjwai itself to the atrocity.Elsewhere, many Afghans seemed ready to believe that ISAF was lying: that the soldier had not acted alone, or had been drunk.And many would have seen similarities with ISAF’s much resented policy of “night raids”—the seizure and often killing of militants in private houses.But local Panjwai elders said that, rather than take to the streets in fury, people were ready to await the result of an investigation into the deaths.All the same, on March 13th the Taliban seized the chance to launch an attack on the government delegation coming to pay its respects to the dead.In another incident, an Afghan driver raced in a stolen vehicle towards 200 marines at a southern base, as the American defence secretary’s plane was landing there.The man later died of burns.Fazluddin Agha在一月份的一次自杀式炸弹袭击事件中丧生。本杰瓦尔惨案发生之后，当地居民表现得相对克制可能是因为这位已故长官的影响力仍然存在。在全国其他各地，许多阿富汗人似乎都认为国际安全援助部队在撒谎：枪击惨案的作案士兵不止一个人，作案者也并没有喝醉。许多人也看到了这次惨案与引起阿富汗人强烈不满的政策——“夜间袭击”——的相似之处：在这种突然袭击中，国际安全援助部队经常会闯入民宅击毙武装分子。但当地的老人说，相对于愤怒地走上街头抗议，他们正在等待这一惨案的调查结果。尽管如此，塔利班却利用这个机会，在3月13日向前去哀悼死者的政府代表团发动了袭击。在另外一起恐怖袭击事件中，一名阿富汗人驾驶一辆偷来的汽车朝南部一个基地中的200名海军士兵冲过去，当时美国国防部长的飞机刚降落。后来，袭击者死于烧伤。

What might most alarm ISAF’s commanders, however, is that the maacre seemed to cause the greatest shock abroad, coming on top of a steady stream of ISAF casualties, the angry protests provoked by the Koran-burning, and the temporary withdrawal of foreign advisers from Mr Karzai’s ministries after two of them were killed in Kabul last month.Together, it all adds to the picture of a war going awry.Opinion polls this week showed 54% of Americans in favour of pulling troops out of Afghanistan even before the Afghan army is ready to take over.Some 73% of Britons polled think the war cannot be “won”.然而，可能最让国际安全援助部队的长官们紧张的是这一屠杀事件在国外似乎也引起了极大的震动，甚至超过了国际安全援助部队自身不断遭受人员伤亡、驻阿士兵焚烧《古兰经》引发的愤怒抗议及在两名外国顾问于上个月被杀害以后从卡尔扎伊的政府部门中暂时撤回顾问人员引起的反应。所有这些都让民众更加觉得战争已经越来越偏离其本来的目的。本周进行的民调显示，有54%的美国人甚至支持在阿富汗军队做好接手国内安保工作的准备之前就从阿富汗撤军。接受调查的英国民众中，约有73%的人认为这场战争不可能“取胜”。

Inevitably, it has all put preure on the politicians to show they are doing their best to bring the troops home.In their talks, Mr Obama and Mr Cameron discued the drawdown.The date at which all combat operations are handed over to Afghan forces is still meant to be the end of 2014.But Mr Cameron said Britain and America are now “absolutely in lockstep” on ending NATO’s “lead combat role” around mid-2013, presumably at the end of the summer fighting season.这些必然会给政府官员带来压力，迫使他们表现出他们正在尽最大的努力将部队撤回国内。在奥巴马与卡梅伦的会晤中，他们讨论了缩减阿富汗驻军的问题。将作战任务全部移交给阿富汗军队的时间仍然是在2014年年底。但卡梅伦说英国与美国现在正“以绝对一致的步调”在2013年年中结束北约军队的“作战主导角色”，有可能在2013年夏天作战季结束之后。

It is not clear what this means in practice, but the generals actually fighting the war are dead against any acceleration of the “transition” timetable.Not only do they hope foreign forces may inflict further damage on the insurgency before then, but they also need the time to train an Afghan army that can outlast both their presence and the Taliban.这一说法最终操作起来会如何还不清楚，但实际参加作战任务的指挥官们却坚决反对加快“转交作战任务”的步伐。他们不仅希望北约军队在此之前能让叛乱人员遭到更沉重的打击，他们还需要时间训练阿富汗军队，使其能够在外国军队撤离后胜任安保工作并能压制住塔利班。

The shooting adds fresh strain to ISAF’s relations with Mr Karzai and his government, on whose behalf, it is sometimes hard to remember, it is fighting.Mr Karzai has now called for NATO-led forces to keep out of Afghan villages.When Leon Panetta, the American defence secretary, showed up in Afghanistan this week, he seemed unlikely to make much progre on the biggest item on the bilateral agenda, forging a “strategic partnership agreement” meant to govern the security relationship after 2014, when both sides hope American troops will stay in Afghanistan, though no longer on the front line.Of the two big sticking points, one has recently budged, with an agreement to transfer some detainees to Afghan custody.The other, however, the Afghan demand for an end to “night raids”, looks harder than ever.At the very least, America may have to agree that the raids will all be “Afghan-led”.ISAF says most already are.这次枪击事件使得国际安全援助部队与卡尔扎伊及阿富汗政府的关系更加紧张。后者有时候都忘了这场战争是为了他们而打。现在卡尔扎伊要求北约军队不要进入阿富汗村庄。当美国国防部长莱昂?帕内塔本周抵达阿富汗时，他似乎不可能在双方议事日程中最主要的议题上取得太大进展。该议题即达成“战略性合作协议”，该协议旨在规定2014年以后双方的安全合作关系。届时，尽管美军不再参与前线作战，但双方都希望美国军队能都继续驻扎在阿富汗。在影响双方谈判的两个主要问题中，其中一个已经取得些许成果：双方达成协议将部分囚犯转交给阿富汗看管。而第二个问题，也就是阿富汗政府要求北约军队停止开展“夜间袭击”，似乎比以往任何时候都难以解决。至少，美国得同意所有的夜间袭击都要由“阿富汗领导”。国际安全援助部队表示，事实上大多数的夜间袭击行动已经是在阿富汗部队的领导之下进行的。

A third obstacle has now arisen: extraterritoriality, or the American insistence that soldiers such as the Panjwai suspect—who has now been flown out of Afghanistan—are investigated and judged by the American army, not in the Afghan courts.From Baghdad to Okinawa, this is a thorny iue, and now is not a good time in Kabul to negotiate an agreement guaranteeing American troops immunity from local prosecution even after 2014.现在，阻碍双方达成最终协议的第三个障碍出现了：治外法权。也就是说：美国坚持其士兵（如现已乘机离开阿富汗的本杰瓦尔枪击惨案的嫌犯）必须由美国军方来调查和审判，而不是在阿富汗法庭受审。从巴格达到冲绳，这都是一个棘手的问题。但是现在，要讨论即使是保证2014年以后美军士兵不在当地受审的协议似乎都不太是时候。

Watching all this closely will be the Taliban.They will be aware of Western donors’ intention to scale back a proposed 352,000-strong Afghan security force, which is supposed to ensure the survival of the Kabul regime after 2014.And on March 15th they suspended talks with the Americans about opening an office in Qatar, which was to have been the venue for a dialogue.The idea of talks was based on the aumption that both sides know the Taliban cannot hope to conquer and hold Kabul and the north of the country, whereas the south will never have peace until the Taliban are brought into politics.塔利班肯定正密切关注着事件的进展。他们会注意到西方捐助者缩减原定为352000人的阿富汗安全部队的意图，该部队承担着在2014年之后保护阿富汗政府的职责。在3月15日，塔利班停止了与美军关于在卡塔尔设立一个办公室的谈判，该办公室本来是要作为双方对话的场所。双方对话是基于这样一个假设：双方都清楚地知道塔利班不可能攻下并守住喀布尔及北方地区；同时，在承认塔利班是合法的政治力量之前，阿富汗南方地区也将永无宁日。

One danger in the Western disarray over Afghanistan is that the Taliban may begin to dream grandly again of restoring their Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.And in this ambition Afghanistan’s big neighbour, Pakistan, itself angry and disillusioned with the West, and still a vital source of support and sanctuary for the Taliban, might think it has an interest in encouraging them.西方国家在阿富汗现在面临着一个混乱的局面，这对他们来说有一个隐忧：塔利班可能会异想天开地认为他们又有机会复兴他们的阿富汗伊斯兰酋长国。仍然是塔利班的主要支持力量并为塔利班提供庇护的巴基斯坦已经对西方相当愤怒并且不抱有任何幻想。阿富汗旁边这个举足轻重的邻国，可能会觉得自己在支持塔利班卷土重来的野心中确实有利可图。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65224-1-1.html 译者：Dezazer

[2012.03.17]Flavoursome research “味儿足”的研究

Matter and antimatter 物质与反物质

Flavoursome research “味儿足”的研究

Physicists are closing in on how matter differs from antimatter 物理学家们正携手最终解释物质究竟如何与反物质不同 Mar 17th 2012 | from the print edition

HOT on the heels of results from Fermilab, in America, which reported last week on an esoteric phenomenon called charge-conjugation/parity(CP)violation involving equally esoteric subatomic particles known as D0-mesons, a second research group, the Daya Bay Collaboration of more than 40 institutions, mainly from China and America, has found a related result involving neutrinos.CP violation is an asymmetry between matter and antimatter and the experiment, based at a complex of nuclear reactors 50km(30 miles)north of Hong Kong, has settled a longstanding puzzle that bears on the question of whether neutrinos, too, experience it.That, in turn, is related to the deeper question of why the universe is made of matter rather than having originally had equal amounts of matter and antimatter.If such a primordial equity had prevailed, the two would have annihilated each other, leaving a universe filled only with energy.上周，美国的费米实验室（Fermilab）报告了涉及D0介子的CP破缺（电荷共轭/宇称对称性破缺）现象，这种现象连同这种亚原子粒子都不怎么为一般人所了解。还没多久，另一个研究小组在中微子上发现了一个相关的实验结果，这个名为大亚湾合作研究项目的研究小组是由主要来自美国和中国的40多家研究机构组成的。CP破缺是物质与反物质之间的一种不对称性。这个在香港以北50公里的核反应堆综合设施内完成的实验，解开了一个有助于了解中微子是否也存在CP破缺的长久谜题。而这又联系到一个更深层的问题：为什么世界是由物质组成，而不是像初始时那样存在等量的物质与反物质。如果这种原始的均势在宇宙中存在，物质与反物质将会相互湮灭，留下一个仅仅充满着能量的世界。

Strictly speaking, the Daya Bay experiment looked at antineutrinos rather than neutrinos.These particles are a by-product of nuclear fiion, and the six reactors at Daya Bay and nearby Ling Ao turn them out in prodigious quantities.The idea was to see how many of these antineutrinos disappear before reaching the experiment’s main detector(pictured above), which is housed in an underground hall near the reactors.This, the team hoped, would help elucidate a phenomenon known as neutrino oscillation.严格来说，大亚湾这个实验观察的是反中微子而不是中微子。他们是核裂变的副产品，大亚湾和附近的岭澳核电站的六个反应堆可以源源提供大量此类粒子。实验的想法是看看有多少反中微子在到达主探测器（见上图，安放在反应堆附近的地下大厅中）之前消失。研究小组此前是希望它可以帮助了解中微子振荡这一现象。

Neutrinos(and antineutrinos)come in three “flavours”: electron-neutrinos, muon-neutrinos and tau-neutrinos.A given neutrino can, however, oscillate between these flavours.As a consequence, some of the electron-antineutrinos spewed out by the reactors were expected to morph into other sorts and thus escape detection by apparatus designed to count only electron-antineutrinos.And the researchers did indeed observe 6% fewer of the beasts than would have been the case if no oscillations had taken place.中微子（和反中微子）分为三种“味”：电子-中微子，μ介子-中微子和τ介子-中微子。一个指定的中微子仍然可以在这些“味”之间振荡。因此，当一部分从反应堆喷射出来的电子-反中微子变成其他的“味”时，专门设计来探测电子-反中微子的仪器就探测不到这部分。实验中，研究人员确实观测到这种诡异的粒子比没有振荡效应情况下预测的少了6%。

The way neutrinos oscillate is described by three numbers called mixing angles, which determine how likely this spot-changing is for any pair of flavours.Two of the angles have been known for some time.The remaining one, theta-13, which governs the relationship between electron-and tau-neutrinos, has proved elusive.Last year two experiments, T2K in Japan and MINOS in America, found hints of what it might be.The results from Daya Bay have at last allowed it to be determined accurately.To many physicists’ relief, they have confirmed that it is not zero.This is crucial, because if it had been zero they would have no experimental purchase on a fourth parameter, called delta.中微子振荡的方式可以由三个被称为混合角的参数描述，以此可以确定任意两种味之间“振荡”发生的概率。其中的两个混合角已经知道有一段时间了。余下的一个描述电子-中微子和τ介子-中微子之间振荡的θ13被证明是难以捉摸的。去年的两个实验（日本的T2K和美国的MINOS）发现了找到这个参数可能值的迹象。而大亚湾这个实验的结果则终于使该参数得以精确测定。让很多物理学家欣慰的是，这些结果确认了这个参数不为零。这是很关键的，因为如果它为零，就没有必要做实验观测第四个参数δ了。

Delta is a measure of how much neutrinos feel CP violation.And CP violation in neutrinos is something theorists can parlay into oodles of universe-preserving matter-antimatter asymmetry.Experiments like those at Daya Bay, involving antineutrinos from reactors, cannot measure delta directly.But the collaboration’s result bodes well for those that can.These include T2K and MINOS, both of which use particle accelerators to whip up beams of muon-neutrinos and send them to detectors hundreds of kilometres away.δ用来量度中微子受到CP破缺影响的程度。目前理论认为是“物质-反物质”之间的高不对称性维持着物质世界的稳定，而中微子的CP破缺是理论物理学家用以研究这个不对称性的有效途径。大亚湾这类涉及反应堆抛出的反中微子的实验，并不能直接测量δ。但是这个实验项目的结果给了那些可以测量出该参数的实验更多的信心。这些实验包括T2K和MINOS，它们都是利用粒子加速器把μ介子-中微子束加速并射向数百公里外的探测器。

T2K was shut down by the earthquake and tsunami which shook Japan a year ago, but it has been back in busine since January.In America, meanwhile, MINOS is being replaced with a fancier experiment called NOvA, which will start collecting data in 2013.With luck, then, the matter-antimatter conundrum—and with it the reason anything exists at all—will not remain a mystery much longer.T2K由于日本的地震和海啸而于一年前关闭了，今年一月又重新投入使用。在美国的MINOS也正在被名为NOvA的更厉害的实验所替代，新实验将于2013年开始采集数据。到那时如果运气好的话，“物质-反物质”的谜团，连同它所能解释的为什么现在居然有物质存在的难题，将不再是个谜。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65222-1-1.html 译者：darcher

[2012.03.17]A Singapore cemetery: Brown study 一座新加坡坟场 A Singapore cemetery 一座新加坡坟场

Brown study 深思布朗山

Citizens rally to the defence of the dead, and their own heritage 公民奋起捍卫逝者的权益，以及自己的文化传承 Mar 17th 2012 | SINGAPORE | from the print edition

Sikh: for now, ye shall find 锡克说：现在，还得寻见[注1]

THAT it has survived this long is a sort of miracle.In the middle of Singapore, just north of the Pan-Island Expreway, lies 0.9 square km(0.3 square miles)of lush greenery, birdsong, and 80,000-100,000 tombs.Bukit Brown, named after a British merchant who lived nearby in the 19th century, is one of the world’s biggest Chinese graveyards outside China.在新加坡中部泛岛高速公路北侧有一座盖地0.9平方公里的坟场。这片郁郁葱葱，鸟语声声，共有八到十万塚墓地的坟场能够幸存至今不能不说是一种奇迹。该地以19世纪时住在附近的一位英国商人命名，叫作武吉布朗山[注2]，它是中国以外世界上最大的华人墓地。

A peaceful, rather magical place, it is frequented by strollers, joggers, cyclists and, especially at this time of year, just ahead of the Qing Ming grave-sweeping festival in early April, by the filial, equipped with brooms and with “ghost money” to burn in tribute to the dead.这是一个幽静奇妙的地方，有很多散步者，跑步者和骑自行车者常来光顾。此外，特别是每年4月初清明扫墓时节之前，大量孝子孝孙们会带着扫帚和冥钱前来祭祀逝者。

Some graves date back to the 1830s, or, as the tomb inscriptions have it, the reign of the Daoguang emperor, sixth of China’s Qing dynasty.That was not long after Sir Stamford Raffles claimed the island for the British.Here lie buried Singapore’s pioneers and its heroes—both of the war with Japan, and of the commercial struggles that have always been the island’s lifeblood.The biggest tomb holds Ong Sam Leong, who died in 1917, having made a fortune out of his monopoly on the supply of coolie labour to phosphate mines on Christmas Island.坟场里的一些坟墓可以追溯到19世纪30年代，换句话说，根据碑文是立于中国清朝第六位皇帝道光年间。当时距斯坦福?莱佛士爵士[注3]将新加坡收归英国版图还没过多久。这里沉睡着新加坡的先驱和英雄们，有的是和日本作战时期的英雄，有的则是这个岛国一直以来的命脉-商业斗争中的豪强。其中最大的坟墓属于1917年过世的王三龙。他当年曾垄断了向圣诞岛上的磷矿输送苦力劳工的业务，并以此发家致富。

Like many other graves, it is protected not just by statues of fierce beasts, golden boys and jade maidens, but also by models of imposing Sikh guards.And it has 24 friezes illustrating filial piety: the woman who suckles her mother-in-law rather than her hungry infant;the boy who digs a cave by his parents’ tomb to comfort them during thunderstorms;the son who tastes his father’s stool to ascertain his state of health.和很多其它坟墓一样，这座坟周围不但有凶猛石兽，金童玉女保卫，也放有威风的锡克卫士像[注4]。碑上还刻有二十四孝浮雕：乳姑不怠，闻雷泣墓，尝粪忧心等等。

These days Bukit Brown is also the haunt of an unlikely aortment of activists: descendants, heritage enthusiasts and nature-lovers, all hoping to persuade the government not to drive a planned eight-lane road through this unique piece of Singapore’s history.The road’s final alignment is to be announced soon.如今武吉布朗山也是一些本应互无瓜葛的活动分子共同心系的问题：这些人包括逝者后人，文化传承热衷分子还有自然爱好者。他们都希望劝服政府不要让一条规划中的八车道公路通过这片独特的新加坡历史保留地。该公路的最终线形将于近期公布。

Red-and-white plastic strips strung from poles mark the expected corridor.Numbered wooden pales mark graves likely to be in its path.The government’s Ministry of National Development says fewer than 5,000 will be affected, and all will be exhumed.在预计将要建造公路的位置两边立着柱子，之间系着红白相间的塑料带。对建造公路有妨碍的坟墓都被标出，旁边插有带着数字的木桩子。国家发展部宣布受到影响的坟墓不到五千座，这些坟墓将会被移走。

But the road will slice Bukit Brown in two and, say enthusiasts, destroy its character.Eventually, it will be given over to housing.Singapore’s population has doubled in the past 30 years, to 5.2m, and is expected to increase to 6.5m by 2050.The government favours the living over the dead.但是活动分子认为这条公路会把武吉布朗山一分为二，破坏其风貌。最终，这块地区将会被改建成住宅区。新加坡的人口在过去三十年里已经翻了一倍，现在已达520万，到2050年预计将会增加到650万。对政府来说，活人当然比死人重要。

Thanks to the internet, the energetic campaign to educate Singaporeans about Bukit Brown has put some preure on the government.But fewer than 2,000 people have signed its petition.Bukit Brown really does need a miracle now.多亏了互联网，这项充满活力，旨在让新加坡人更了解武吉布朗山的运动已经在政府头上施加了一定的压力。但是目前只有不到2千人签署了它对政府提出的请愿。现在看来，要保留武吉布朗山确实需要一个奇迹。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65181-1-1.html 译者：nayilus

[2012.03.10]Bandwagons and busts 从众和灾难 Costs 成本

Bandwagons and busts 从众和灾难

Nuclear plants are getting ever more expensive.But Asian countries may build them more cheaply 核电站变得越来越昂贵。但是亚洲国家建造核电站的成本可能较低

Mar 10th 2012 | from the print edition

A clear argument for nuclear power 这张照片很清楚地说明了应该用核能的理由

IN HAIYANG, ON the northern Chinese coast, and at Sanmen, farther south, an international consortium led by Westinghouse is well into building two AP1000s, with two more in the works;China plans eventually to have 12 split between the two sites.If the plans go ahead, each site will have as much capacity connected to the grid as the whole of Nigeria has today.Yet the two plants represent only a small fraction of China’s nuclear ambitions.Its pre-Fukushima plans to increase its nuclear capacity from 10GW to 80GW by 2020 may fall behind schedule, but China still looks certain to build more new nuclear plants than any other country over the decade to come—and poibly more than all others combined.由西屋电气公司带领的一支国际联队正在位于中国北方的海阳以及更南方的三门两个沿海城市里建造核电站。两座AP1000反应堆的建造已经有了相当进展，此外这批工程还将再建造两座反应堆。中国计划最终将在这两个地点建立共12座反应堆。如果一切照计划行事，这两个地点将拥有的核电容量各自都能超过今天尼日利亚全国电网的发电容量。但是两座电厂只代表了中国核电抱负的一小部分。中国在福岛事件之前订立的计划是在2020年前将核电容量从10千兆瓦提高到80千兆瓦。这一计划现在可能无法按时达成了，但是在接下来的十年里，中国建造的新核电厂肯定比其它国家都要多，甚至可能比所有其它国家新建的核电厂总数还要多。

By nuclear standards, this is a big deal;China will add more nuclear capacity in those ten years than France has in total.But for China itself it is le big;nuclear will go from generating le than 2% of the country’s electricity to le than 5%.Ming Sung, who works for the Clean Air Task Force, an American think-tank in Beijing, points out that China is not betting on nuclear;it is betting on everything that offers an alternative to coal.China consumes half the world’s annual coal output, and has the supply problems, dirty air and huge death toll(hundreds of thousands a year from respiratory diseases)that go with it.Junda Lin of the China Greentech Initiative points out that the 2020 target for nuclear has to be seen in the context of a 200GW target for wind and an extra 100GW of hydropower.The idea is to try everything and see what works best.以核电标准来看，这可是个大工程。中国在这十年里增加的核电容量将会超过法国全国的总核电容量。但是这对中国来说就并不算大。核电容量将会从全国总发电容量的不到2%上升至不到5%。美国智囊集团“净化空气任务组织”驻北京的孙嗣敏指出中国并不是在核能上下注，而是在所有可以代替煤的能源形式上都下注。中国现在消耗世界煤炭年产量的一半，同时也面对与之俱来煤源供应、空气污染和大量死亡者（每年因呼吸道疾病死亡者有几十万人）这些问题。中国绿色科技组织的林骏达指出之前定下的2020年核能目标要和200千兆瓦的风力发电和增加100千兆瓦的水力发电这些目标放在一起看。现在的思路是要尝试所有发电手段，看看哪一种最适合。

Most of the plants China is currently building are generation IIs derived from a French design it bought in the 1980s and now built by Chinese companies, but there are also Ruian PWRs in Tianwan and Canadian Candus in Qinshan.In Taishan two EPRs are being built by Areva and the China Guangdong Nuclear Group, which has a long-standing relationship with the French industrial base from which its domestic designs ultimately derive.And then there are the AP1000s.Westinghouse won that contract in large part by promising to transfer the technology in full to local companies, but it hopes that its expertise will allow it to keep a prominent role in the Chinese industry.中国现在在建造的大多数核电站都是第二代核电站，是从80年代购买的一种法国核电站设计衍生出来的，由中国公司建造。不过在田湾也有俄罗斯的压水反应堆（PWR），秦山核电站内也有加拿大氘铀核反应堆（Candu）。在台山核电站内阿海珐公司和中国广东核电集团则正在合作建造两座欧洲压水堆（EPR）。中广核与法国工业基础有长期的合作关系，其国内核电厂设计说到底是从法国借鉴来的。另外还有AP1000，西屋电气能获标这次工程有很大一部分原因在于其承诺将会把核电厂技术完全转移给本地公司，不过西屋电气希望自己在核电方面的专业水准能让自己继续保持住在中国核能行业内的领头地位。

After Fukushima the state council stopped approving new power stations and called for re-evaluations of the seismic and flooding risks faced by those already built and under construction.A new law expected later this year will take nuclear regulation away from the National Development and Reform Commiion, the state’s industrial planners, and hand it over to the environment ministry, thus splitting the role of cheerleading from that of invigilation.Part of what paes for the Chinese government’s legitimacy comes from the perception that it can manage large-scale technology well.The backlash against China’s high-speed train programme after last year’s accident at Wenzhou, which provoked criticism and anger of a sort that Chinese leaders fear, would be dwarfed by what could be expected from a nuclear accident.在福岛事件之后，国务院停止对新核电站的批准，并要求对那些已经建好及尚在建造中的核电站面对洪水地震时的安全隐患进行一次再评估。今年稍后，一项新的法律将会把核监管的责任从中国的工业计划局－国家发展和改革委员会转移到环境部手中。这么一来就把给核能摇旗呐喊的角色和对核能监察管制的角色分离开来。中国政府的正统性有一部份来自于公众认为其能良好管理大规模技术的看法。去年的温州事故引发了中国领导人深以为惧的公众抨击和愤怒，造成人们对中国高铁项目的激烈反对。但比起一旦发生核事故灾难可能引起的民众反应，这是小巫见大巫了。

A sincerely self-interested desire to avoid accidents, though, will not necearily translate into a model regulatory infrastructure.A safety culture of constant questioning will not be easy to instil.And China’s nuclear regulatory workforce is already more stretched than that of other big economies in terms of employees per gigawatt under regulation.但是，出于自身利益而由衷地希望避免灾难并不一定能就能产生优秀的监管基础设施。要培养一种不断质疑的安全文化不是一件易事。而以监管每一万兆瓦核能的平均人数来看，中国的核能监管人力已经比很多大型经济体更为短缺了。

Beside the seaside 临海之滨

Another new law will outline future plans for the industry.Some expect China’s nuclear boom to slow down in the wake of Fukushima, with new capacity perhaps reaching only 40GW by 2020.And China could get proportionally more AP1000s and fewer of its own home-made designs, the safety of which may be le aured.All China’s current plants are by the sea, both because it is convenient for cooling and because that is where the demand is.There have been plans for nuclear plants inland, cooled by rivers, but concerns about the availability of water in drier years to come and the risk of contaminating it may cause these plans to be shelved.另一项新法案将会概述核能行业未来的计划。有人预计中国的核繁荣在福岛事件之后将会放慢脚步，其2020年的核电容量可能只会达到40千兆瓦。中国也可能会在建造核电站时加大AP1000所占的比例，减少安全水准没有那么可靠的国产核电站设计。中国现有的所有核电站都是位于沿海，这既是因为沿海更易于提供冷却，也是因为沿海是电力需求最大的地方。也曾有过在内地建造利用江河进行冷却的核电站计划，但是对旱年冷却水可能会出现短缺的忧虑，加上核电站可能会造成污染的风险也许是这些计划最终没有落实的原因。

China’s expansion into nuclear power is hardly a market-driven development, but it helps that the plants involved look comparatively cheap.There are two ways of measuring the cost of a nuclear power plant: the “overnight” cost, which counts up the material and labour that goes into a new plant as if it had all been purchased simultaneously, and the “levellised” cost, which is a measure of the total amount of energy a plant provides over its life divided by the total expenditure—construction, operation, maintenance, fuel and, eventually, decommiioning.One is the cost of the capacity to produce electricity, the other the cost of the electricity produced.The 2010 edition of the IEA/NEA Costs of Generating Electricity study puts overnight costs for Chinese generation II plants at $1,700 for every kilowatt of capacity, giving a gigawatt plant a price tag of le than $2 billion.For the AP1000s the estimated costs are higher($2,300/kW), and by the time the projects are finished they may be higher still;these are the first AP1000s being built anywhere, so its wise to expect surprises.Schedules are being stretched, and the Chinese contractors for key parts of the third and fourth AP1000s are falling behind a bit, according to Westinghouse.中国大规模开发核能几乎算不上是市场驱动的一项发展，但是其建造的核电站相对较便宜确实对发展是有所帮助的。一座核电站的成本有两种方法可以测量：“隔夜”成本，即算入所有建造新电站的材料和劳力成本，就好像所有这些都是同时购买的一样；还有一种方法是“平准”成本，即测量核电站终生使用过程中提供的总电能，除以所有的总开销，包括建造，运作，维护，燃料以及最终废弃的全部成本。前者衡量发电容量的成本，后者衡量实际发电的成本。2010版本的国际能源署/核能署发电成本报告中将中国第二代核电厂的隔夜成本定在每千瓦容量1700美元，这意味着一座容量为1千兆瓦的电厂价格为20亿美元不到。而AP1000电厂的估计成本要更高（每千瓦2300美元），等到项目完成时它的实际成本可能会进一步上升。在中国建造的这几座反应堆是世界上第一批建造的AP1000，所以工程中出现和预计不符的现象是很正常的。工程进度目前正在不断延后，根据西屋电气，为第三和第四座AP1000提供关键部件的一些中国供应商进度已有点落后了。

Still, almost anywhere else in the world, these figures would today be a source of envy—or incredulity.When companies were beginning to pitch generation III reactors ten years ago, they claimed that better, standardised designs and improved construction techniques would make them both safer and cheaper.In Western countries that second claim has gone by the board.British studies in 2004, 2006 and 2008 put the overnight cost of new PWRs at $2,233/kW, then $2,644, then $3,000.Estimates from the Maachusetts Institute of Technology(MIT)rose from $2,208/kW to $4,000 over roughly the same time.The NEA quotes costs for an EPR in Belgium(now cancelled)at $5,400 per kW.Capacity fired by gas turbines, for comparison, can cost le than a fifth of that.即使这样，在世界上任何其它地方，现今核电厂成本可以达到这种数字都会招来嫉妒，或者怀疑。一些公司在十年前开始推广第三代反应堆时，它们宣称更优秀的标准化设计，加上更先进的建造技术可以让这些电厂不但更安全，也更便宜。在西方国家，这第二个卖点已经被彻底粉碎了。英国在2004，2006和2008年的三份研究报告给出的新型PWR的隔夜成本分别是每千瓦2233美元，2644美元和3000美元。麻省理工学院（MIT）的估价则在大约同一时期内从每千瓦2208美元上升到了4000美元。核能署为比利时的一座EPR（现在已取消）的估价达到每千瓦5400美元。相比之下，燃气轮机发电单位容量的成本可以低于其五分之一。

Real construction costs, which include the cost of borrowing the money needed, are even higher than overnight costs.Construction costs for the two AP1000s that Progre Energy has planned for its Levy site in Florida have recently been reported at about $20 billion, which works out at about $9,000 per kW and strongly suggests that the reactors will not be built.实际建造成本也包括所需贷款的借贷成本，这么一来就比隔夜成本还要更高。进步能源公司计划在其佛罗里达州莱维县电厂建造两台AP1000反应堆，最近该建造成本据报达到大约200亿美元，折合下来就是每千瓦9000美元，这意味着这两个反应堆很有可能被取消。

Cost escalation has been the rule throughout the industry’s history.In the late 1960s what is now called the “great bandwagon market” took off in America.Companies selling plants they had no real experience of building offered fixed prices to make them attractive.Utilities keen to reduce their reliance on coal in an age of clean-air standards took the bait.As orders flooded in, costs started to climb.Projects meant to be completed in years dragged on for more than a decade, in part because of new environmental concerns, in part because designs were revised as leons were learned.At the Vogtle plant, in Georgia, a pair of reactors originally priced at $660m in 1971 came in at $8.87 billion 16 years later.Half the projects ended up cancelled.成本飙升在核能行业内一直以来都是很普遍的。在60年代末，美国核能行业出现了现在被称为“大型从众市场”[注]的现象。公司在出售自己并没有实际建造经验的电站时提出了固定价格吸引买家。面对清洁空气标准时代的来临，公用企业急于减少对煤炭的依赖，纷纷上钩了。随着大量订单涌入，成本开始向上攀爬。本应几年完工的项目拖了十几年，有一部分原因是来自新的环境顾虑，也有一部分原因是随着在实际建造中学到经验电站设计被不断的改进。乔治亚州的沃格特勒核电站在1971年订造，一开始标价6亿6000万美元的两座反应堆最终花了16年才建好，总成本88.7亿美元。有一半的项目最终都被取消了。

The French experience is often quoted as a positive counter-history to the American me.France had long been keen on energy security.When it made PWRs based on a Westinghouse design a national priority in the early 1970s, it brought a thorough-minded discipline to the matter, building its capacity region by region, improving the designs as it went along and increasing the size of its plants to reap economies of scale.Having the same contractor and customer for so many plants allowed the system to learn from mistakes and to refit older plants to newer standards.Even so, according to calculations by Arnulf Grübler of IIASA, a think-tank near Vienna, each of the six designs France has fielded has cost more per kilowatt than the previous one had.He estimates that the four reactors built in the 1990s cost between $2,267 and $3,252/kW in 2010 dollars, more than twice the real cost of capacity built in the 1970s and early 1980s.The first two EPRs to be built in Europe, in France and Finland, have both gone extravagantly over schedule and budget.法国的核能发展史经常被作为一个正面教材，拿来和美国混乱的核能发展史做对比。法国从很久以前就开始关注能源安全问题。70年代初，法国将基于西屋电气设计的PWR开发作为国家重点项目。法国在这个项目上引入了非常彻底的纪律作风，一个地区接着一个地区有条不紊地建造核电容量，在这个过程中同步改进其设计，并扩大电站规模来达到规模经济。这么多电站都是同一个顾客，同一个承包商，这让整个核电系统可以从错误中学习到经验，将旧的电站改修来满足新的标准。即使这样，根据“国际应用系统分析学院”（维也纳附近的智囊机构）的阿努尔夫?格鲁伯勒计算，法国在实际建造中用到的六个电站设计论单位千瓦的成本，每一个都比前一个更贵。他估计90年代的四座反应堆成本折算成2010年美元的话介于每千瓦2267美元到3252美元之间，这是70年代和80年代初建造的核电容量实际成本的两倍多。欧洲最先建造的两座EPR分别是在法国和芬兰建造的，两者完工日期都大大延后，且大幅度超出了预算。

A decade ago the nuclear industry hoped that the combination of safe, low-cost generation III reactors and governments eager to encourage lower carbon-dioxide emiions would lead to a “nuclear renaiance”.In the West those low costs have failed to materialise, so the renaiance is largely stalled.Whereas a few years ago Britain was talking of building eight new reactors to replace its ageing fleet, only two are likely to make it in the near term.Steve Thomas, an economist at the University of Greenwich, argues that even with a fixed carbon price of €36/tonne and a guaranteed price for the electricity(both features of a currently planned re-regulation of Britain’s energy market;today’s EU carbon price is under €10), those plans remain vulnerable.十年之前核能行业希望安全廉价的第三代反应堆和急于鼓励降低二氧化碳排放的政府两者结合起来，将会带来一场“核能复兴”。在西方低廉成本的保证并没有兑现，因此这种复兴基本上被搁置了。几年前英国曾谈论要建造八座新的反应堆来替换其老化的核能设施，但是现在只有两座可能在近期建造。格林威治大学的经济学家斯蒂夫?托马斯认为即使把碳价格锁定在每吨36欧元，同时保证电力价格（目前有一项计划要对英国能源市场重新实施监管，这两项都是该计划的组成部份，现在欧盟的碳价格不到10欧元），这些核能计划要想实施还是有重重问题。

In a capital-intensive industry such as the nuclear one, the cost of capital is always crucial, and higher overnight costs magnify the problem.Calculations of the levellised costs of energy by UBS, a bank, show clearly that the cost of capital dominates the picture.For a plant costing $5,500 per kW, capital makes up 75% of total costs in Europe and America.UBS reckons the levellised cost of such a plant in Europe is 11% higher than the cost of a gas plant.It would take a quintupling of the carbon price to wipe out that differential.And those calculations aume that it is as easy to borrow to finance a nuclear plant, with all its uncertainties and regulatory risk, as it is to finance a gas plant, which is probably unrealistic.在像核能这样一个资本密集的行业内，资本成本一向都是很关键的，较高的隔夜成本将会把问题扩大化。瑞士银行对能源平准成本的计算清楚显示资本成本占据主导地位。要建一座每千瓦需要5500美元的核电站，在欧洲和美国资本占所有成本的75%。瑞士银行认为如果就平准成本来看，这样的电站在欧洲的成本比天然气发电站成本高11%。碳价要翻五倍才能抵销这一价格差异。而且这些计算都假设不管建造的是核电站还是天然气发电站，要为两者借贷募资是一样容易的。考虑到建造核电站有着大量不确定性，再加上监管风险，这个假设似乎不太实际。

Step on the gas 加大油门

In eastern Europe, where Ruian dominance of gas markets is a political iue and electricity markets are still quite regulated, governments may consider such a differential acceptable.The Czech Republic is about to tender for new generation III PWRs, and Poland has plans along those lines too.But in America things look very different.Asked if Fukushima put America’s nuclear renaiance on ice, Ernest Moniz of MIT replies succinctly: “No.Shale gas did.” For all the production incentives, loan guarantees and indemnity for costs due to regulatory change offered by government, the sharp drop in gas prices caused by new sources of supply ruled out new nuclear plants in any market where the two energy sources compete freely.According to UBS, the advantage of gas over nuclear in America is roughly twice what it is in Europe.在东欧，俄罗斯在天然气市场上的主导地位是一个政治问题，而且电力市场的监管程度依然非常高。这么一来东欧政府可能会觉得这样的差价是可以接受的。捷克马上就要进行新的第三代PWR建筑投标，波兰也有类似的计划。但是在美国情况则非常不同。在被问到福岛事件是否冻结了美国的核复兴时，MIT的俄尼斯特?莫尼兹给出了一个言简意赅的回答：“不，那是页岩气干的”。尽管有政府提供的各种生产激励，借贷担保以及为因为监管政策改变造成的损失进行赔偿，核能还是敌不过天然气。因为新供应源的出现，天然气的价格大幅下降。在任何这两种能源自由竞争的市场里，廉价的天然气都彻底排除了兴建新核电站的可能。根据瑞士银行的分析，在美国天然气相对核能的优势大致比欧洲要高一倍。

John Rowe, CEO of Exelon, an energy company that has ten nuclear power plants in its portfolio, says that companies like his no longer have any reason to build nuclear plants.All plans to build nuclear plants in parts of America where the electricity market has been deregulated are coming to naught.Some American plants will still be built, but only in the south-east, where regulators allow the cost of increasing a utility’s aet base to be paed on directly—indeed pre-emptively—to its captive customers.Thus electricity consumers in Georgia are already paying for two new AP1000s which in February got clearance from the NRC to complement the two reactors at Vogtle.In Sumner, South Carolina, two more AP1000s are under contract.Those four will probably be all the renaiance America sees for some time.爱克斯龙能源公司旗下目前有十座核电站。其首席执行官约翰?罗伊认为像爱克斯龙这样的公司已经没有什么理由继续建造核电站了。在美国所有那些电力市场监管已经被解除的地方，建造核电站的计划都无疾而终。美国还是有一些核电站正在建造之中，但是这仅发生在东南部，那里的电力监管使得公用企业可以把增加资产基础的成本直接（实际上是预先）转移给那些无法切换公用供应商的顾客们。因此乔治亚州的电力用户所付的电费中已经包含了将要建造的两座新AP1000的费用。这两座反应堆将加入沃格特勒核电站已有的两座反应堆行列。2月核管理委员会对该工程进行了批准。南卡罗来纳州萨姆纳市订购了两座AP1000。这四座很可能就是很长一段时间内美国核能复兴的全部成员了。

If the West could build new reactors as cheaply as China can, things would look different.That it cannot is in part due to labour costs.But the Chinese must have other advantages too.The levellised costs of modern Chinese coal-fired power stations are lower than the competition’s even when the power stations are not built in China.The same is true for cement works;Chinese companies operating outside China cannot build them as cheaply as they do at home, but they still easily beat the international competition.如果西方国家可以以和中国一样的低成本建造反应堆，那么情况就会大不一样。它们做不到的部份原因在于劳工成本。但中国公司一定也有其它优势。中国的现代燃煤电站即使在海外建造，其平准成本还是比竞争对手低。水泥工厂也是一样的。在海外运作的中国公司建造的水泥工厂虽然成本比在国内建造的要高，但还是比国际竞争对手要便宜得多。

Further evidence that a different industrial approach can cut costs comes from South Korea.Like Japan, the country has little by way of indigenous energy supplies, and it too decided on nuclear power to solve that problem and bring new technological skills to its industrial base.It gets some 30% of its electricity from nuclear plants, much the same as Japan did before Fukushima, and more than any large economy other than France.In 2010 KEPCO, the South Korean power company, sold its reactors overseas for the first time, beating the French to a contract in the United Arab Emirates;at home its overnight costs for such generation II reactors are calculated at just over $1,500/kW.使用不同的工业方法可以减少成本的进一步证据来自韩国。和日本一样，韩国几乎没有本土能源，它也决定要依靠核能来解决这个问题，同时在其工业基础内引入新的技术技能。韩国30%的电力来自于核电站。这个比例和福岛事件之前的日本相仿，比除了法国外任何其它大型经济体都要高。2010年韩国电力公司第一次将其反应堆远销海外，在争夺阿联酋的一份合同时击败了法国同行。在国内韩国电力公司这类第二代反应堆的隔夜成本据计算大约只有每千瓦1500美元出头一点。

The true costs in South Korean busine can be hard to make out.It would not be at all surprising if, working abroad for the first time and having been keenly competitive in its bidding, KEPCO failed to deliver the UAE reactors on budget.And given that nuclear prices have gone up everywhere else, it is fair to expect that they will do so to some extent in Asia, too.But if China and South Korea can build reactors abroad at prices not much higher than those at home, nuclear may see its fortunes tick up elsewhere, argues David Victor, of the University of California.Both Westinghouse and EDF have plans for new reactors in the export market that would be designed and sold in collaboration with Chinese partners.Ruia is keen to export PWRs too, but its costs are not clear.韩国企业真正投入的成本是很难计算的。第一次在海外运作，加上韩国电力在竞标时把价格压得很低，它如果最终无法按预算完成这些阿联酋反应堆并不会是一件很让人惊讶的事。考虑到核电站造价在全世界其它各地都已上升，认为它在亚洲也会有一定程度的上升是很合乎情理的。但是加州大学的大卫?维克多认为如果中国和韩国在海外建造反应堆的成本比国内高不了太多，那么也许核能会在其它地方获得青睐。西屋电气和法国电力都有计划和中国合作方一起设计销售新反应堆以供出口。俄罗斯也很热衷于出口PWR，但是其成本目前还不是很清楚。

Inviting the Chinese to come in and build a nuclear plant is an unlikely step for a Western government(though the South Koreans are bidding on a Finnish contract).Some developing countries, though, may be interested.This is a matter of concern for backers of the American nuclear industry with an eye to national security iues, such as Pete Domenici, a former senator.If America is not engaged in the market, how can it use its influence to deter proliferation? 西方政府不太可能邀请中国公司来自己国家建造核电站（虽然韩国公司目前在竞标一座芬兰核电站）。但是一些发展中国家可能会有兴趣。对于支持美国核能行业，同时又关心国家安全问题的人，像是前参议员彼德?多梅尼西来说，这是个很大的问题。如果美国对核能市场都漠不关心，那么美国要怎么用自己的影响力来阻止核扩散呢？

And it will indeed have le scope for such influence.But even at Chinese prices, nuclear energy is expensive compared with coal, and if other countries gain easier acce to gas, as America did, that will reduce demand too.Vietnam is enthusiastic about nuclear reactors;other Asian countries, especially those in tectonically active places—such as the Philippines and Indonesia—may be le keen than they were before the great tsunami.South Africa is talking of buying nuclear reactors.India has big plans on paper, but a law that makes the designers(rather than the operators)of power stations liable in case of accidents gets in the way(and buying Chinese reactors might be anathema anyway).There is interest in the Middle East, but as Charles Ebinger of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank, points out, the countries talking about buying nuclear power in response to runaway electricity demand might do better to curb their handsome consumer subsidies.They might also do well to invest in alternative energy.The sun’s nuclear reactor has been going for 4.5 billion years, and extracting power from it is getting cheaper every year.美国阻止核扩散的影响力范围将来还会更窄。但是即使以中国的造价来看，核能和煤比起来还是过于昂贵。如果其它国家也像美国那样获得更轻松的天然气来源，这也会降低对核能的需求。越南很热衷于核反应堆。其它的亚洲国家，尤其是那些位于板块活动地区的国家，像是菲律宾和印尼对核反应堆的热衷可能已不如大海啸之前了。南非正在谈论要购买新的核反应堆。印度也有一些大型的纸上计划，但是印度有一条法律要求万一事故发生，核电站的设计方（而不是运作方）需要负责，这可能阻碍了核电的发展。另外印度可能本来就对向中国购买核反应堆非常反感。中东对核电很感兴趣，但是智囊机构布鲁金斯学院的查尔斯?俄宾格指出：对于那些在谈论购买核能以应付大幅飙升的用电需求的国家来说，减少它们高昂的消费者补贴也许是更好的办法。投资替代能源也可能是不错的作法。太阳内部的核反应堆已经运作了45亿年了，而且随着时间过去从它那儿提取能量正在变得越来越便宜。

译者注

Bandwagon effect汉密尔顿说，对中国购物者进行教育，告诉他们交易背后的血腥，能对保护野生动物起到积极作用。目前在中国正有这样一场公益广告战役已经打响，他们由一些中国名人来发起号召，比如篮球明星姚明，斯诺克运动员丁俊晖，请求人们不要购买濒临灭绝的动物的产品。他们说，“没有买卖，就没有杀戮。”

http://ecocn.org/thread-64947-1-1.html 译者：songz2000

[2012.03.10]Creation story 创造的故事 The history of computing 计算机史

Creation story 创造的故事

Computing’s long and twisted past 计算机漫长而又曲折的过去 Mar 10th 2012 | from the print edition

Turing’s Cathedral: The Origins of the Digital Universe.By George Dyson.Pantheon;401 pages;$29.95.Allen Lane;￡25.Buy from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk 《图灵 [注]大教堂：数字世界的起源》。乔治?戴森（George Dyson）著。美国万神庙出版社，售价29.95美元；英国阿伦?雷恩出版社，售价25英镑。Amazon.com与Amazon.co.uk网上有售。

“I AM thinking about something much more important than bombs,” John von Neumann remarked in 1946.“I am thinking about computers.” The Hungarian-born mathematical genius knew that weapons and computers were closely intertwined.During the second world war computers had been built to crack codes(Colous, in Britain)and calculate artillery firing tables(ENIAC, in America).But these were dedicated machines built to perform specific tasks.“我正在考虑一些远比炸弹重要的东西，”约翰?冯?诺依曼1946年这样说，“我正在考虑计算机。”这位生于匈牙利的数学天才知道，武器与计算机紧密相关。人们在二战期间建造了计算机来破译密码（如英国的Colous计算机）与计算炮队火力表（如美国的ENIAC计算机）。但这些是为专项任务建造的专用计算机。

Von Neumann dreamed of building a far more flexible and powerful general-purpose computer, the theoretical capabilities of which had been determined in the 1930s by Alan Turing, a British mathematician.As the cold war began, along came the perfect opportunity: the hydrogen bomb, whose construction would require detailed mathematical modelling.Von Neumann did a deal with his American military paymasters.They got their bomb, and the scientists got their computer, a key ancestor of all modern machines.The subsequent explosion of computing changed the world.冯?诺依曼幻想着制造一台灵活性与功能都要强大得多的通用计算机。这种计算机的理论性能是由英国数学家阿伦?图灵在20世纪30年代确定的。冷战的开始带来了一个绝好的机会：制造氢弹需要建立详尽的数学模型。冯?诺依曼与美国军需主管达成了一项协议。最后，军方得到了炸弹，而科学家们得到计算机——所有现代计算机的关键始祖。计算能力随后的爆炸性发展改变了整个世界。

As George Dyson explains in “Turing’s Cathedral”, von Neumann was just as excited by the other poibilities opened up by computers, from artificial life to weather forecasting.But the hydrogen-bomb project offered him the freedom and the money to build a new type of computer: a “stored-program” machine that could be reconfigured quickly to perform different tasks by changing its software, rather than rewiring its hardware.